The rash of gloomy economic forecasts is spinning a new horror tale that’s equally as frightening as a recession. In brief, if goes as follows: Whatever course the slumping economy takes — recession or no recession, sharply slowing growth or zero growth — forget about any meaningful economic recovery until 2010.

That’s what I get from a former chief economist at Lehman Brothers, Allan Sinai, one of the sharpest, more perceptive economic minds around. His reasoning: The ailing American economy will take a lot longer to get back on its feet than many experts think.

If he’s right, the stock market’s shoddy 2008 start could be a forerunner of what to expect the rest of this year and possibly next year. Mr. Sinai, currently president and chief global economist of Decision Economics, an 11-year-old New York-based economic consulting service, sees an ongoing sluggish economy for the next couple of years. In other words, no renewed economic growth of 3% or better, at least not before 2010. This dismal assessment is in sharp contrast to the outlook of many of his economic brethren, a number of whom expect a healthy rebound either in the second half or in early 2009, with the gross domestic product next year once again rising 3% or more.

When it comes to football, poker tournaments, or the Oscars, the final word from the losers is invariably the same: Wait till next year. Not so in the case of the slumping economy, according to Mr. Sinai. Pointing to a host of agonizing problems — chief among them a continuing decline in housing prices, rising layoffs, sour corporate spending, weakening consumer spending, and spreading credit problems — he says he thinks it’s unrealistic to expect a meaningful recovery any time soon.

Despite repeated acknowledgement from Washington of a significant economic slowdown, the Congressional Budget Office is projecting peppy GDP growth of 3.4% this year, followed by 3.1% growth in 2009, presumably theorizing that the current economic slump will have a short duration. Mr. Sinai views such projected growth numbers as far too optimistic, arguing that the economy’s current ills will require at least a two-year healing process before it can engineer a strong comeback. As for a resumption of annual GDP growth of 3% or better, he doesn’t see it in the cards before 2010 at the earliest.

Mr. Sinai is by no means oblivious to the positive steps aimed at warding off a recession, notably a string of new rate-reduction moves by the Federal Reserve, another of which is widely expected at the end of this month, and the prospects of government stimulus.

It’s just that he says he believes the expectation level for arresting the economic decline quickly may be overly optimistic. For example, he notes while the Fed will ignore inflation and continue to ease rates to invigorate the economy, such a bailout will take an appreciable amount of time. “The worst of the economic downturn is yet to come,” he says. As for government stimulus, the veteran economist observes: “We may get some this year, but even a $500 rebate to American families is small change and too little too late.”

Reflecting his bleak outlook, his GDP expectations are a puny 1.5% increase this year, followed by a modest 1.8% to 2% rise in 2009. This year’s growth is pegged at 2.2%, versus 2.9% growth in 2006. Mr. Sinai also wonders to what extent America’s slowing economy could affect economic growth abroad. Yet another of his worries: the possibility of losing some financial institutions, notably banks, before the current downturn runs its course.

“I know this all sounds gloomy, but that’s the real world and the way it is,” he says.

What about a recession (as measured by two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth)? Mr. Sinai doesn’t rule that out, but he notes that “we’re already in a recession-like situation.” Just look around, he says. “The economy looks, acts, feels, and behaves like we’re in a recession. The GDP numbers may not show it, but that’s because they’re very misleading.”

What does it all mean to the stock market? “We’re in an equity bear market that started several months ago,” he says, “and it should be kept in mind that equity bear markets usually last about a year.” To Mr. Sinai, the message for stock players is clear: Ditch the losers and keep at least 45% of a stock portfolio in cash.

At the same time, he says he thinks non-American equity exposure is okay. In this context, he favors Russia, India, and China; emerging Latin America, except Mexico; Asia, except Japan, and emerging Europe, such as Poland and the Czech Republic.

To sum up, the worst “is yet to come,” he says.

dandordan@aol.com