Alexander Lukashenko may not be in the big league of tyrants, but he knows how to gloat with the worst of them. In the Belarusian capital of Minsk he delivered a two-hour tirade before the foreign press on Monday, in which he claimed to have thwarted a Western plot to overthrow him. In other words, Mr. Lukashenko had just stolen a third presidential election. The man who has presided over the most benighted backwater of the old Soviet empire sneered at Americans as “ignoramuses.” He deserves the Order of Lenin – or of Hugo Chavez – for chutzpah.

Mr. Lukashenko seems to glory in his reputation as Europe’s last dictator. He thinks he can get away with it. Sunday’s poll, in which he supposedly won 82.6% of the vote, was dismissed as a sham by the free world. Only President Putin sent his congratulations to a neighbor whose behavior makes even the Russian president cringe. Why, Mr. Lukashenko still calls his secret police the KGB.

Outside, a few thousand shivering Belarusian protesters brave the Arctic cold. They risk being imprisoned, beaten, or shot by Mr. Lukashenko’s thugs. Some have brought tents and declared their intention to stay in Minsk’s Oktyabrskaya (October) Square until a new round of elections is conceded. The opposition leader, Alexander Milinkevich, has called for a demonstration this Saturday, the anniversary of the first (and short-lived) Belarusian declaration of independence in 1918. His call will surely be answered. Is this another Orange Revolution? Shall people power overcome again?

The answer, alas, is: probably not yet. Not only the revolutions of 1989, but the more recent overthrow of post-communist regimes in Georgia and Ukraine have led Westerners to assume that spectacular popular uprisings can triumph effortlessly and bloodlessly over Soviet-style police states. The truth is that the despots are slowly learning how to forestall people power. It will take more than telegenic demonstrators in furs to evict a brute like Mr. Lukashenko from power.

Over the border in Kiev, Viktor Yanukovych, the Stalinist who was defeated by the Orange Revolution, is trying to stage a comeback at this Sunday’s parliamentary election. President Yushchenko, who survived an attempt to poison him, is struggling to preserve his fledgling democracy against the Russian bear. Mr. Putin, who briefly switched off gas supplies a few weeks ago, hopes to persuade Ukrainians to have second thoughts about the fickleness of the European Union, which fears to admit Ukraine as a member.

Back in Minsk, there has been talk of EU sanctions after Sunday’s rigged election. But they are paltry. Brussels knows that it will take more than a ban on visas and a freeze on assets for Belarusian officials to deter Mr. Lukashenko. The United States has been more robust than the Europeans in its condemnation of electoral fraud and intimidation in Belarus. It has not minced words about Mr. Lukashenko, describing him as a “dictator” and his government as “an outpost of tyranny.” As yet, however, the Administration has not announced any concrete sanctions against the Lukashenko regime.

If the Western powers want Belarus to be free, they will have to do better than this. There are a number of steps that they could take which would wipe the sneer off Mr. Lukashenko’s face. America still has great moral authority in Eastern Europe, and a strong speech by President Bush to the people of Belarus would galvanise the opposition. Western Europe could help to tip the balance of power in Belarus by making EU membership conditional on new, fair elections and Mr. Lukashenko’s removal from office. In order to prove that they mean business, however, the EU would have to reward Ukraine for its progress towards democracy and the rule of law. So soon after the EU’s enlargement there is little appetite for new members in Eastern Europe.

More feasible might be a joint American-EU campaign to encourage, even underwrite, opposition in Belarus. The apparatus that was built up during the Cold War, such as Radio Free Europe, has long since been dismantled, but new, more sophisticated means are available to inform Belarusians about what is really going on in their country. The danger is that the West will soon lose interest in Belarus again. Yet this is a country that should matter to us, given its strategic importance to Europe and symbolic importance to the world. If the West turns a blind eye to Belarus, tyrants around the world will rejoice.