If the 2003 off-year elections around the nation are early returns for 2004, the news was good for the Republicans. The party captured two Southern governorships, in Kentucky and Mississippi, fast on the heels of the gubernatorial win of Arnold Schwarzenegger in California last month. To find any good news, the chairman of the Democratic National Committee, Terry McAuliffe, had to point to the Democrats’ maintaining the mayoralty of Philadelphia and even the Democrats’ defeat of Mayor Bloomberg’s proposal for nonpartisan elections.

Also, data out from the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press show that the Republicans have made significant gains in such swing states as Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa — all states that Vice President Gore won in 2000. The percentage of voters in those states registered as Republicans increased. The GOP also experienced gains in Arkansas and Tennessee, according to Pew. In Florida, the Democrats held a five-point advantage leading up to the 2000 election. Since September 11, however, 37% of Floridians identify themselves as Republicans and 36% as Democrats, according to the Associated Press.

This, combined with the retirements of four Democratic senators — Hollings, Edwards, Graham, and Miller — points to a tough national race for the presidency and the Senate over the next year. Even more discouraging for the Democrats must be Pew polling that shows President Bush in a 42%-42% tie with an unnamed Democratic opponent, but walking away handily with the election when the candidate is named from among the uninspiring pack. The director of Pew, Andrew Kohut, attributed Republican gains in the Pew poll to Mr. Bush’s response to the 9/11 attacks. A lot can happen in the year before an election, but the early returns suggest the Democrats have their work cut out for them.