PERSIAN GULF

IRAN 10 YEARS AWAY FROM NUCLEAR WEAPON

A major U.S. intelligence review has projected that Iran is about a decade away from manufacturing the key ingredient for a nuclear weapon, roughly doubling the previous estimate of five years, according to government sources with first-hand knowledge of the new analysis.

[According to the Associated Press, Iran threatened to reopen its nuclear processing plant in Isfahan yesterday but later agreed to a two-day delay after receiving a request from the chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations’ atomic watchdog agency.]

The carefully hedged assessments, which represent consensus among U.S. intelligence agencies, contrast with forceful public statements by the White House. Administration officials have asserted, but have not offered proof, that Tehran is moving determinedly toward a nuclear arsenal. The new estimate could provide more time for diplomacy with Iran over its nuclear ambitions. President Bush has said he wants the crisis resolved diplomatically but “all options are on the table.”

The new National Intelligence Estimate includes what the intelligence community views as credible indicators that Iran’s military is conducting clandestine work. But the sources said there is no information linking those projects directly to a nuclear weapons program. What is clear is that Iran, mostly through its energy program, is acquiring and mastering technologies that could be diverted to bomb making.

– Washington Post

WESTERN EUROPE

BRITISH POLICE ARREST TWO TERROR SUSPECTS IN RAIDS

LONDON – Police investigating failed July 21 bomb attacks in London said yesterday they had arrested two men during raids, as authorities tried to determine whether there were links between that attack and the transit bombings three weeks earlier.

A total of 23 people have been arrested in connection with the failed bombing attempt, including the four main bombing suspects in police custody in London and Rome. The July 21 bombing came exactly two weeks after July 7 attacks that killed 52 people plus all four suicide bombers. The men in the arrests announced yesterday have been detained “on suspicion of the commission, preparation, or instigation of acts of terrorism,” a police spokeswoman said. They were arrested after searches of three properties in the Stockwell and Clapham areas of London.

With many Londoners fearful of a third round of attacks on the Underground and bus systems, authorities looked for any solid links between the first two plots, which appeared similar on the surface. Police have not said whether they think the two sets of bombers were part of the same network, reporting to a common supervisor. Investigators have played down reports saying that they believed a third terror cell was poised to strike.

– Associated Press

BRITISH ARMY TO SLASH PRESENCE IN N. IRELAND

BELFAST, Northern Ireland – The British army will slash its garrison in Northern Ireland to peacetime levels, demolish spy towers in Catholic areas, and disband its overwhelmingly Protestant local battalions within two years, commanders said yesterday.

The announcement of the cuts came as a decisive response to the IRA’s promise last week to disarm fully and cease violence.

Lieutenant General Redmond Watt said Britain would cut current troop levels in more than half to a maximum of 5,000 in 14 bases within two years, while scores of current installations – iron-walled fortresses that the outlawed Irish Republican Army spent a bloody generation toiling in vain to destroy – would be dismantled within months. Much of the change will depend on the IRA fulfilling its four-day-old promise to disarm fully and to avoid any violent or threatening activities.

In a letter addressed to the 11,000 soldiers and thousands of civilian employees, General Watt said the IRA was withering as a threat to Northern Ireland’s stability while police increasingly were dealing with IRA dissidents “without routine military support … the clearest signal that our role here is nearing completion.”

The IRA is expected to resume scrapping its hidden weapons stockpiles within days and an international commission that includes a former deputy CIA director is scheduled to issue reports on IRA activities in October and January.

– Associated Press

EAST ASIA

PROGRESS SLOW AT NORTH KOREA NUCLEAR TALKS

BEIJING – The chief American envoy to talks on North Korea’s nuclear program said yesterday he saw few chances for quick progress as efforts to draft a statement of basic principles dragged into a second week. Negotiators were working on a second draft proposed by host China after they spent the weekend struggling with North Korea’s demands for what it should receive if it disarms.

“I don’t see any breakthroughs on the immediate horizon,” a visibly weary Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill told reporters after what he said was 12 hours of meetings. Mr. Hill said “rather major differences” remained between North Korea and the other five governments. He said some issues that the Americans had thought were resolved re-emerged as disagreements yesterday, but he would not give details. He said he did not know how long the talks would last.

China gathered input from the delegations – which also include Japan, Russia, and South Korea – and proposed a second draft of an agreement late Sunday, according to Mr. Hill. No details of either draft statement have been released. Chief delegates will discuss another revision today, South Korea’s no. 2 envoy said after he and other deputies spent three and a half hours poring over the proposal yesterday.

– Associated Press

MIDDLE EAST

IRAQIS URGED TO MEET CONSTITUTION DEADLINE

BAGHDAD, Iraq – The head of the committee writing Iraq’s constitution appealed yesterday to the country’s political leaders to help reach compromises on key issues so framers can finish the document by the August 15 deadline.

If Humam Hammoudi’s 71-member committee, which is due to meet Friday, cannot agree, the unresolved issues will be forwarded to the full 275-member National Assembly to be resolved, he said. Faced with deadlock, Mr. Hammoudi confirmed that he had recommended Sunday that the committee formally ask parliament for an extension. Several committee members said the group concurred with the recommendation. However, key members reversed their position later Sunday under pressure from the Americans and from President Talabani.

Also yesterday, the bodies of 19 Shiite men were discovered in Baghdad. The bodies had been shot in the head and chest, and some showed signs of torture, First Lieutenant Thair Mahmoud said.

– Associated Press