Israel’s release of a Hezbollah spy, and Hezbollah’s surprising transfer of Israeli soldiers’ remains, could signal the imminent release of two Israelis whose kidnapping sparked the 2006 war in Lebanon.

Even if Hezbollah doesn’t free Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser, yesterday’s exchange served as yet another reminder of how the Shiite organization’s savvy leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, plays on Israel’s vulnerabilities.

As forensic teams in Israel worked to identify the remains, government officials quoted in the Israeli press claimed they knew nothing about the surprise transfer. They said they released Nasim Nisr, a Lebanese citizen who has served six years in prison for spying, because his jail term could no longer be legally extended. Red Cross officials also said they knew nothing about the remains.

But Hezbollah’s TV station, al-Manar, reported that Israel and Hezbollah had taken the “first step” toward a prisoner exchange. The German foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, also spoke of “preliminary steps” toward that goal. For Prime Minister Olmert, bringing home the two Israelis from Lebanon could present a respite from his mounting legal problems. Or will it?

Sheik Nasrallah, who discovered years ago that nothing rattles Israel more than the prospect of a prisoner swap, is striking at a time when many in the Iranian sphere of influence believe that Mr. Olmert’s legal troubles are fatal and will fulfill Ayatollah Khomeini’s prophesy.

“More than ever, the Zionist regime is disintegrating from within,” the Iranian foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, said this weekend at a conference dedicated to Khomeini’s vision of a world without Israel. “As the Imam Khomeini said, if each Muslim throws a bucket of water on Israel, Israel will be erased.”

Sheik Nasrallah prides himself in throwing more bucketfuls on Israel than anyone. When Messrs. Regev and Goldwasser were kidnapped two springs ago, the Hezbollah leader knew he had made a huge score. To date, Hezbollah has refused to release even the smallest signal that the two Israelis are alive, raising the game of kidnap and extortion to new heights.

A German intelligence official, later identified as Gerhard Konrad, began the arduous task of negotiating between Israel and Hezbollah immediately after the 2006 war ended. A former U.N. secretary-general, Kofi Annan, claimed that the unidentified mediator was negotiating on the organization’s behalf, saying he was working to enforce the U.N. Security Council resolution that ended the conflict.

In its resolution 1701, the council emphasized the need to release the kidnapped Israeli soldiers. Separately, it added that it was “mindful of the sensitivity” of Lebanese prisoners held in Israel. Regardless of the clear legal distinction, the two paragraphs were immediately interpreted by all concerned as a call for an even swap: Hundreds of Hezbollah operatives captured and held under Israeli law would be freed. In return, Hezbollah would release the two Israeli soldiers.

Sheik Nasrallah’s biggest prize in this exchange would be Samir Kuntar. In April 1979, Kuntar led an armed gang that infiltrated the northern Israeli town of Nahariya from Lebanon. After killing a police officer, Eliahu Shahar, the gang entered the beachfront home of Smadar and Danny Haran. As the gang held hostage Danny and his 4-year-old daughter, Einat, Mrs. Haran hid in a crawlspace, where, trying to prevent the couple’s 2-year-old, Yael, from crying and being discovered, she accidentally suffocated the toddler. Kuntar then shot Danny and tossed his body into the Mediterranean and proceeded to smash Einat’s head with the butt of his rifle as her horrified mother looked on.

By promoting the release the Druze “brother Samir” as a major goal of Hezbollah, Sheik Nasrallah is presenting Jerusalem with a “Sophie’s Choice”: On one side is Smadar Haran, the survivor, along with others repulsed by the mere suggestion of releasing Kuntar. And on the other are the Goldwasser and Regev families. Many Israelis now believe that releasing Kuntar is worth it only if the soldiers are alive. As Hezbollah has provided no proof of that, Mr. Olmert will face a new wave of criticism if he releases Kuntar for dead bodies.

Meanwhile, Israel is allowing Kuntar to write letters from his jail cell. In a recent letter to Sheik Nasrallah, he vowed that after his release, he will be “in the fighting front, soaked with the sweat of your giving and with the blood of the martyrs.”

bavni@nysun.com