Candidates Set for a Marathon
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

WASHINGTON — Chances are increasing that the races for the major party presidential nominations will resemble more of a marathon than a sprint.
One or both nominating contests could extend deep into the spring and well past the February 5 “Super Duper Tuesday” that has long been seen as the season’s decisive date.
That is particularly plausible on the Republican side, where each of five candidates with a diverse set of regional and political strengths conceivably could win primaries in the first month. The early January clashes in Iowa and New Hampshire may be more scene-setting than climactic, and at least one top contender, Mayor Giuliani, is explicitly banking on a longer nominating season based on success in later states.
“This is now arguably, in both parties, the most fluid race since the 1970s for the Democrats, and maybe since 1980 for the Republicans,” a professor of public affairs at Franklin and Marshall College, G. Terry Madonna, said. “Both parties’ nominations are wide open.”
With polls showing Mr. Giuliani well behind in Iowa and as low as third in New Hampshire, the former mayor of New York is focusing more and more on Florida, which votes on January 29. Most surveys have given him a wide lead there, and a victory would position him well for the flurry of large, delegate-rich states that hold primaries on February 5th, including New York, California, Missouri, Illinois, and New Jersey. More than half of the total number of delegates needed to win the nomination will be awarded in the 22 states that vote on February 5.
The Giuliani campaign plainly believes it does not need to win any of the four opening states, arguing that his strength in Florida and the February 5 states can withstand the surge of momentum one or more candidates will carry from Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Michigan.
“Nobody’s ever done this approach before,” Mr. Giuliani’s campaign manager, Michael DuHaime, acknowledged in an interview yesterday.
But even if Mr. Giuliani wins the larger states where he now holds a sizable lead, an out-and-out victory on February 5 may be unlikely. Some of the states, including California, are not winner-take-all and award delegates to more than one candidate. Other states voting then include several in the conservative South, where a candidate carrying momentum from victories in the early states, such as Michael Huckabee or Mitt Romney, could have an advantage over the more socially moderate Mr. Giuliani.
Scenarios abound. Senator McCain could win New Hampshire and leap back into contention, while a former Tennessee senator, Fred Thompson, could surprise in Iowa and pivot to a victory or strong showing in South Carolina on January 19.
Mr. DuHaime said the campaign is prepared for this as well. “We’re very comfortable playing for the long haul,” he said. Mr. Giuliani, he said, could pick up delegates not only in the states he won but by placing second in other states that award delegates proportionally. He also argued that Mr. Giuliani was strong in the states that vote late in the process, particularly Pennsylvania on April 22.
After February 5 a handful of states, including Maryland and Virginia, vote in the ensuing weeks, leading up to major potential battles in Texas and Ohio on March 4 if the race is not decided. After Pennsylvania in April, Indiana, North Carolina, and Kentucky are among the final 10 contests in May and June.
The strategies for the leading Democrats are more conventional, with a heavier emphasis on the early states. But the once dominant front-runner, Senator Clinton, is now locked in a three-way battle with Senator Obama and John Edwards in Iowa.
A delayed nomination fight on either side could also complicate the entry of a potential independent candidate like Mayor Bloomberg, who is likely waiting for the two major party choices to be determined before deciding on a White House race. Mr. Bloomberg would face state filing deadlines as early as May and June to qualify for the November ballot, and the still-unlikely possibility of an contested party convention could flummox his plans altogether.
Although fund-raising would not be an issue for the billionaire mayor, more than 100,000 signatures are needed to qualify for the ballot in states like Florida and California that would be key to Mr. Bloomberg’s chances. In New York, 15,000 are required. Though petitioning has historically been both time- and ground-intensive, the hurdles are far from insurmountable. “It’s not as hard as people think,” the editor of the newsletter Ballot Access News, Richard Winger, said.
A candidate must petition for the ballot in Texas by May 8 — the earliest such date in the nation. But the vast majority of state deadlines are not until July, August, and September. And the potential to organize supporters on the Internet may make the process much easier. “The Internet has taken all bets off,” the interim dean of Boston University’s College of Communication, Tobe Berkovitz, said. ‘You can build an almost instant cyber-community.”
The scenario that would throw the biggest wrench in any election plans would be a contested party convention in late summer, in which no candidate entered with enough delegates to secure the nomination. While such brokered conventions were common earlier in American history, recent decades have seen conventions that are entirely scripted by the parties, devoid of any real drama.
Despite the wide-open nature of this year’s races, few if any political observers are predicting either nomination will be decided at the conventions. Officials for the two parties, however, say preparations are being made for any contingency. “We have plans built in for all levels to address any kind of circumstance,” a spokeswoman for the Democratic Party’s convention committee, Natalie Wyeth, said.
The two parties and the various states have different rules governing the awarding of delegates and whether the delegates are bound to vote for the winners of the primary or caucus.
On the Democratic side, a candidate must win about 2,200 delegates to get the majority needed to secure the nomination. While most of the delegates are bound to the winner of a state primary or caucus, about 850 are party leaders and elected officials known as superdelegates, who are not bound to any candidate. In a CBS News survery last month, Senator Clinton led in superdelegates by a two-to-one margin over her nearest rival, Senator Obama. But surveys of superdelegates at this stage are seen largely as a reflection of the national polls and swing quickly.
Republicans have 469 unpledged delegates out of a total of nearly 2,400. A candidate must win a majority of all the delegates to capture the nomination. In the event that the party enters its convention without a nominee, each state has different rules governing how quickly delegates can switch to another candidate. Some specify that delegates must stick with their pledged candidate through one or two ballots, while others say that a delegate must hold as long as a candidate maintains an “active campaign.”
—
Correction: 469 is the number of unpledged Republican delegates. An earlier version of this story misstated the number.