How Mr. Giuliani Could Benefit from Bush Loss
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

While Governor Pataki and Mayor Giuliani are pulling out all the stops to propel President Bush to victory in November, the New York politicians might have a better shot of winning the Republican presidential nomination in four years if Mr. Bush loses, according to political strategists.
While it may seem counterintuitive, several political observers say moderates like Messrs. Pataki and Giuliani could benefit from the collective soul-searching that is likely to descend on the GOP following an unsuccessful presidential campaign.
“They would probably both do better if Bush were defeated, in that the Republicans, as every party going through the wilderness, would try to decide what to do differently,” said a professor of politics at the University of Virginia, Larry Sabato. “They would probably decide to moderate.”
“When parties lose they always go through this agonizing confessional: ‘What did we do wrong? How can we correct it? What’s our penance?’ I would expect that confessional to help people like Giuliani and Pataki,” Mr. Sabato said.
A longtime Giuliani supporter, who asked not to be named, said he believes the former mayor could coast to the nomination if Mr. Bush were to lose.
“The party would instantly seek out a savior-type candidate. … That’ll be Rudy,” the GOP operative said.
A Manhattan political consultant, Fred Siegel, dismissed Mr. Pataki’s chances but said Mr. Giuliani could fare better in the wake of a Bush loss.
“If Bush wins and has a moderately successful second term, why take a chance on a Giuliani who is sort of a wild card? If Bush loses, the party may be more inclined to take a chance,” said Mr. Siegel, who is a professor at Cooper Union.
One of Mr. Pataki’s allies said he sees some merit in the argument, particularly because the Bush administration is increasingly under fire from conservatives who accuse it of abandoning fiscal restraint. If a second Bush administration does not change course, the reasoning goes, those activists may insist on a dyed-in-the-wool conservative candidate in 2008.
Mr. Bush “has been angering the right wing of the party from an ideological perspective,” the Pataki backer said, adding, “That could benefit a less moderate candidate.”
The GOP politico said, however, that, on balance, the infighting will be greater if Mr. Bush does not win a second term. “I see the struggle being much more intense should Bush lose,” the operative said. “I think another four years benefits the moderates.”
A spokeswoman for Mr. Pataki, Lisa Stoll, declined to be drawn into the debate.
“Governor Pataki believes America and the world will be better off if President Bush is re-elected and he’s working hard to ensure that reality,” she said. “The rest is just speculation.”
Mr. Giuliani’s office did not return a call seeking comment for this story.
Other politics handicappers suspect another term for Mr. Bush would bolster the chances of the Empire State moderates.
A columnist for U.S. News & World Report, Michael Barone, wrote this week that a victory or near-victory by Mr. Bush in New York and neighboring states could buoy the fortunes of both potential New York presidential candidates.
“It would make Republicans potentially competitive in those states in 2008, which would provide an argument for nominating Rudolph Giuliani, George Pataki, or (if a constitutional amendment is passed) Arnold Schwarzenegger,” Mr. Barone wrote.
In an interview yesterday, Mr. Barone said the party’s embrace of the moderates may be conditional on the war on terror continuing to dominate the debate.
“Those guys, Rudy, Pataki, Arnold, none of them talked about any issue where they may disagree with Bush. Those issues in the context of 2004 are suddenly much less important than they once were,” Mr. Barone observed. “I don’t know whether that’s going to be true in 2008 or not.”
A professor of political science at SUNY New Paltz, Gerald Benjamin, said a Bush victory could have an added benefit for both Mr. Pataki and Mr. Giuliani: high-profile jobs, perhaps Cabinet posts, in the administration.
“The New Yorkers are very much a long shot without intervening jobs,” Mr. Benjamin said. “It depends on what platform is offered them in the time of a Bush presidency.”
Mr. Siegel said, though, expressed doubt that a Cabinet role would position Mr. Giuliani ahead of other more conservative contenders.
“If he’s seen as a Cabinet official, that would give him a good platform, but never would it elevate him above somebody like a Mitt Romney,” Mr. Siegel said, referring to the governor of Massachusetts.
Some political observers said the New Yorkers had little chance of winning the GOP nomination under any scenario.
“I’m not impressed that they’re going to have the shot they think they have,” said the chairman of the political science department at Syracuse University, Jeffrey Stonecash. “I don’t think whether Bush wins or loses has much to do with it.”
Mr. Stonecash predicted that most GOP primary voters and activists will simply be unable to reconcile their social views with those held by Messrs. Giuliani and Pataki.
“Anybody who espouses tolerance and all that, like both of these guys do, they’re going to have a hard time with that base. They’re not going to galvanize them and they’re not going to mobilize them,” the professor said. “I can’t see it.”
Similarly, another academic, Baruch College’s Douglas Muzzio, said, “They’re on the other side of the culture war. They do not play to the base.”
Mr. Muzzio also said any backbiting that followed a Bush loss is far more likely to relate to the war in Iraq than to general concerns about whether the administration strayed too far from conservative dogma.
“Increasingly, it must be and it will be defined by Iraq,” he said.
Mr. Sabato said that even if Iraq dominates during the remaining weeks before the election, a loss by Mr. Bush would trigger a feeding frenzy on a broad array of domestic issues. That, in turn, could boost the New Yorkers into contention for the nomination.
“I would guarantee you,” Mr. Sabato said, “that at least the press that’s Republican and the magazines that are Republican will probably focus on what Republicans can do to become truly compassionate conservatives and start winning minority voters.”