Secret Weapons and Soft Whispers Spell Mixed Signals on Ukraine’s Counteroffensive
‘We do not yet know what results the counteroffensive will bring,’ Ukraine’s foreign minister says.
Western impatience for Ukraine’s anticipated spring counteroffensive may have to be tempered somewhat — but then again, maybe not.
On the most concrete level, we are about halfway through spring and while fighting is ongoing, Ukrainian counterattacks have largely been piecemeal or taken the form of cross-border attacks, mainly in Russian regions next to Ukraine. Yet the fog of war planning operates on many levels, and as Ukraine waits out the end of “mud season,” it has also been quietly prepping newly acquired battle tanks and other weapons for action.
The exact inventory of Ukraine’s arsenal is not publicly known, but there is little doubt in the Kremlin and elsewhere that it is expanding steadily. In an arrangement until recently considered top secret, new Skynex anti-aircraft systems have started shipping to Ukraine and are being deployed against Russian drones and aircraft.
These modern anti-aircraft guns use technology developed by Oerlikon, a Swiss company, but are manufactured at a factory in Italy. According to Swiss newspaper SonntagsZeitung and Italian reports, the German government paid nearly $200 million for the initial batch of systems bound for Ukraine. The batteries, which look fairly fierce, are significant for two reasons. First, they will help bolster Ukraine’s anti-aircraft shield, which against an ongoing barrage of often lethal Russian rocket fire and drone attacks needs all the support it can get.
Second, the Skynex systems could represent the first time that Ukraine is using weapons not taken from existing NATO stocks or repurposed weapons from various Western countries’ inventories. Rather, they are something virtually brand new, largely conceived and manufactured for the needs of the Ukrainian resistance effort.
The question of whether Switzerland is violating its neutrality by exporting the anti-aircraft batteries is one for another day. After all, this is a very hot conflict, as even the UN secretary-general, António Guterres, seems to recognize. At Madrid yesterday, Mr. Guterres said, “Unfortunately, I believe that at this stage, a peace negotiation is not possible. Both sides are convinced that they can win.”
Mr. Guterres is also working to get Russia and Ukraine to extend a vital Black Sea grain deal that is set to expire on May 18.
At the same time, Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, has tried to tamp down Western expectations for a swift victory. In an interview with German newspaper Bild, he hinted that a single counteroffensive may not be enough. “Do not think that this counterattack will be the last, because we do not yet know what results it will bring,” Mr. Kuleba said.
He added that if a major counterattack triggers the liberation of the Ukrainian regions now occupied by the Russian army, then it will be the last; he also said that if that is not the case, then “we will have to prepare the next one.”
Mr. Kuleba stressed Ukraine’s ongoing need for more weapons and equipment to square off against the Russian army. “To win the war, you need guns, guns, and more guns,” he told Bild. He also said that a lot hinges on Germany, and gave a shout-out to Rheinmetall, which as it happens also has a stake in Oerlikon.
In other defense news, Israel Aerospace Industries has just purchased the defense electronics firm Intracom Defense, Greece’s biggest high-tech defense company that is not owned by the state. According to the Greek newspaper Business Daily, the deal is worth about $65 million and “is a bridge for the Israeli state defense giant’s entry into NATO procurement.” Patriot and Iris-T missiles are among IDE’s “critical partnerships,” the newspaper reported, and of course the first American-made Patriot missiles began arriving in Ukraine last month.
Yet stirrings on the weapons procurement front do not automatically translate to progress on the frontlines. Some military figures have echoed Mr. Kuleba’s concerns, such as a retired Greek air force general, Pavlos Christou. “The fighting is going on in the south in a limited area, so Ukraine can still hold out,” Mr. Christou told the Greek City Times, but added: “If the command expands the whole line, the Ukrainian army cannot respond.”
In the meantime, judging by the pared-down Victory Day parade at Moscow yesterday, Vladimir Putin is plenty worried about the Ukrainian response, whenever it comes — as are a growing number of officials in the Kremlin’s inner circle.