Unlike last year, 2005 will not see any 8-8 teams make the NFC playoffs. Seven of the eight teams in the NFC South and NFC East have winning records, and only four will make the postseason. Two intradivision matchups this weekend provide contenders with a chance to better their own position and knock down a competitor in one fell swoop.

EAGLES (4-3) AT REDSKINS (4-3)
(Sunday, 8:30 p.m.)

The Eagles, predicted to run away with the NFC East, find themselves struggling just to make the playoffs. The Redskins, expected to wallow in last place, are happy to be involved in that struggle as well. Both teams are trying to recover their dignity after the Broncos thrashed the Eagles 49-21 and the Giants stomped the Redskins 36-0.

But Philadelphia is not built to take advantage of the Redskins’ weaknesses that the Giants exposed. Washington had trouble when it blitzed on the right side and the Giants handed the ball to Tiki Barber going left. But will Philadelphia – the league’s worst running team – consider handing the ball off?

Washington’s offensive line couldn’t contain the Giants’ pass rush even though they rarely blitzed. With tackle Chris Samuels hurting, 42-year-old veteran Ray Brown – who started his career in St. Louis for the Cardinals – was forced into action, and was predictably awful. But Philadelphia’s pass rush isn’t as good as in years past, and the complex blitz schemes of coordinator Jim Johnson have led to just 15 sacks.

The defensive line is also just one of many areas where the Eagles are hurting badly. Three defensive linemen are listed as questionable, including pass rush specialist Jevon Kearse. Star wide receiver Terrell Owens is doubtful with a sprained ankle. And punter Dirk Johnson, the only strong point on an otherwise weak special teams unit for the Eagles, is now out for the year with a hamstring injury.

Quarterback Donovan McNabb is trying to play through bruised ribs and a sports hernia without missing games to regain his health, and he’s suffering. His scrambling ability is gone, making him easier to plan for, and many of his throws are off target.

The Eagles managed to shut down San Diego’s LaDainian Tomlinson two weeks ago, but were then mauled by Denver’s Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell, so it’s hard to tell how Washington’s Clinton Portis will fare. But Philadelphia’s clearest defensive weakness plays right into Washington’s favor: The Eagles cannot contain the opposition’s best receiver. Remove San Francisco’s Brandon Lloyd, and opposing no.1 receivers average 91 yards and a touchdown against Philadelphia. Making things even worse, cornerback Lito Sheppard played last week despite a knee injury and was repeatedly burned deep. How will the Eagles stop Washington’s Santana Moss, whose 777 receiving yards rank second in the league?

The Redskins have built their winning record on some lucky breaks, and last year’s Eagles would have been just the team to bring them back to earth. But these are not last year’s Eagles, and advantages in both health and home field give Washington a clear edge.

PANTHERS (5-2) AT BUCCANEERS (5-2)
(Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS)

Carolina was a popular Super Bowl pick in the preseason, but the team was written off by many observers after a 1-2 start. Ignored by everyone, the Panthers have reeled off four straight wins and sit in a five-way tie atop the NFC along with the Giants, Seattle, and division rivals Atlanta and Tampa Bay.

The Bucs had that place to themselves until they were upset by the league’s worst team, San Francisco, last week. Upsets happen in the NFL all the time, but the Bucs cannot write this one off as a fluke, because it was clearly tied to two players: quarterback Chris Simms, who took over the starting job when Brian Griese tore his ACL in the previous game, and rookie halfback Cadillac Williams, who has been rendered ineffective by a foot injury.

The defense did its part against San Francisco, despite the suspension of defensive end Simeon Rice for missing a team meeting. The Bucs held San Francisco to 50 yards passing, and while they allowed 186 yards on the ground, those came at a reasonable clip of 4.1 yards per carry.

But the 49ers – a team that had previously allowed an average of 35 points per game – intercepted Simms twice, sacked him four times, and forced a fumble as Tampa was trying to stage a comeback in the final two minutes. Meanwhile, Williams, who began his career with three straight games over 125 yards, gained a measly 20 yards on 13 carries. Tampa’s only touchdown came on a 78-yard pass to Joey Galloway that was actually a three-yard pass with 75 yards after the catch.

If this was the output against San Francisco, how will Tampa fare against the Panthers’ above-average defense, which hasn’t given up 30 points yet this season? Adjusted line yards, a metric for measuring offensive and defensive line blocking, ranks Carolina’s front seven as the NFL’s best run-stoppers.

Of course, Miami’s front seven rank just behind them in second place, and Carolina running back Stephen Davis is averaging a dismal three yards per carry.

But the Panthers have a colossal advantage in the passing game, where Steve Smith has been the NFL’s best receiver. Despite the mediocrity of the Panthers’ other receivers and the constant defensive focus on Smith, the diminutive veteran leads NFL receivers with 797 yards and eight touchdowns.

Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average ratings (DVOA) – which break down each play of the season and compare it to the NFL average based on situation and opponent – also measure a team’s defense against specific receivers. Tampa Bay’s pass defense ranks 11th overall, but just 15th against no. 1 receivers and 26th against no. 3 or no. 4 receivers. They’ll have problems covering Smith, and if all the safeties are concentrated on helping the cornerbacks stop Smith deep, it will free things up for a big game from venerable slot receiver Ricky Proehl and any of the other six receivers quarterback Jake Delhomme hit with passes in the Panthers’ win over Minnesota last week.

Carolina will be able to score. Without a steep improvement in Simms’s performance and Williams’s health, Tampa Bay will not.

Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of FootballOutsiders.com.