Division Title Picture Gets in Focus Saturday

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

Last night’s West Virginia-Louisville matchup may have been the marquee game of the week, but there are still meaningful contests Saturday. With the regular season beginning its final month, several games will help shape championship races in the major conferences. Here’s a look.

NO. 13 LSU (6-2, 2-2, SEC) AT NO. 8 TENNESSEE (7-1, 3-1)
(Saturday, 3:30 p.m., CBS)

Tennessee won five straight since losing to Florida, and some are calling the Vols the best team in the tightly packed SEC. If the point spread for this contest (LSU is a slight favorite despite the game being in Knoxville) is any indication, this is a game Tennessee desperately needs to win to earn that label. And an impressive win might be necessary to get the Vols into the conversation about who is the best one-loss team, a group that is hoping to sneak a representative into the Bowl Championship Series title game.

The LSU game was one of few bright spots for Tennessee in a dismal campaign last year, as the Vols overcame a 17-point deficit to win in overtime. This season, LSU is the disappointing team, having lost its only two games against top competition. Against both Auburn and Florida, the Tigers struggled to generate any offense, and it’s difficult to picture them exploding against a stout Tennessee defense.

Tennessee quarterback Erik Ainge, a major reason for the Vols’ 7–1 mark, injured his ankle on a dubious quarterback draw late in a last week’s win over South Carolina and will likely be hobbled in this game, not an ideal situation against LSU’s defensive line. The LSU defense is equally tough, allowing a combined 30 points against Auburn and Florida.

This should be a defensive struggle, with the home crowd perhaps turning the tide for the Vols.

MISSOURI (7-2, 3-2, BIG 12) AT NEBRASKA (6-3,3-2)
(Saturday, 12 p.m., ABC (regional)

Welcome to the de facto Big 12 North championship game. The winner of this contest will need only to avoid complete collapse to reach the conference championship game in December. Of course, that’s somewhat like earning the right to represent the National League against the powerhouse AL in the World Series. Well, maybe this is a big game after all.

Neither team comes in to this game on a roll. Nebraska is reeling from two straight losses, while the Tigers have dropped two of three since getting off to a surprising 6–0 start.

Missouri has won with great offensive balance, but may have to rely on the pass to exploit the weakness in the Nebraska defense. Quarterback Chase Daniel, who has done an outstanding job replacing current New York Jet Brad Smith, might be without the services of his top running back, Tony Temple, who injured his shoulder last week.

Nebraska has made strides with the West Coast offense, but still lacks consistency. The Huskers were very close to pulling off an upset of Texas at home two weeks ago, but let the hangover from that defeat carry over in a bad loss to Oklahoma State last Saturday. If the team that played Texas shows up, they’ll beat Missouri at home.

NO. 18 OKLAHOMA (6-2, 3-1, BIG 12) AT NO. 21 TEXAS A&M (8-1, 4-1)
(Saturday, 3:30 p.m., CBS)

Perhaps no team has more to prove Saturday than Texas A&M. Nobody has paid much attention to the Aggies’ 8–1 start — largely because they have yet to play Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Texas. A win over the Sooners will validate the first nine games, while putting A&M in position to control its own destiny if the Big 12 South if it can win out and beat Texas at the end of the year.

A 6–2 record at this point constitutes a tough year for Oklahoma, which lost its starting quarterback to off-field issues before its first game, lost a highly controversial game at Oregon, and lost star tailback Adrian Peterson for the year to a broken collarbone.

Still, the Sooners have not packed it up. Last week, they knocked off Big 12 upstart Missouri on the road and aim to do the same to the Aggies in College Station. Paul Thompson has provided steady play at quarterback all season, and Peterson’s replacement, Allen Patrick, has 267 yards the last two games.

This game looks to have a similar storyline to last week for the Sooners, a deep, experienced team playing on the road against a conference Johnny-come-lately. If A&M believes its won-loss record makes it a better team than Oklahoma, the Aggie players need to reconsider. Their 8–1 start could easily become an 8–4 finish.

NO. 16 BOSTON COLLEGE (7-1, 3-1, ACC) AT NO. 22 WAKE FOREST (7-1, 3-1)
(Saturday, 7 p.m., ESPN2)

It’s fairly certain that few people had this game circled on their calendars as a pivotal ACC clash. Yet the winner will take control of the Atlantic Division and have the inside track to the league title game.

On one hand, Wake Forest is probably the most unlikely 7-1 team in America, having won all manner of tight games. The Demon Deacons even needed a blocked field goal at the end of the game to beat lowly Duke. On the other, Wake could easily beat 8–0, as only a special teams meltdown allowed Clemson to come back and win when the teams played last month.

In college football’s caste system, Wake Forest will never be a “have,” so the Deacons’ success this season means the school will either have to pay up to keep coach Jim Grobe or watch him move on to a more significant program. In the meantime, Grobe continues to impress, getting the most out of a roster that’s not nearly as stocked with talent as most of his ACC rivals.

Boston College, though it has more talent than Wake, has followed a similar script this season. The Eagles have won plenty of close games and find success by being opportunistic and avoiding turnovers. Quarterback Matt Ryan has developed into a steady leader, and having already paced B.C. to a road win over Florida State, he won’t be intimidated here.

Expect these teams to play a well-executed game, as they have all season. The team that gets the first turnover might well be the victor.

Mr. Levine is a writer for FootballOutsiders.com.


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