How the First Round May Go in the NBA Draft
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Last week, one season ended. Tomorrow, another begins.
And for the dregs of the league — that means you, Knicks and Nets fans — tomorrow’s NBA draft (7 p.m., ESPN) is of far more importance than the just-concluded playoffs. It is in the draft that rebuilding plans are hatched, and franchise saviors found — witness a year ago, for instance, when Boston’s draft-day trade of the no. 5 pick for Ray Allen began its amazing rebound from doormats to champions.
So it is without further ado that we present one man’s vision for how things will play out tomorrow. Of course this is folly — trades and smoke screens send the best-laid mock draft plans into the trash heap with shocking speed — but remember to clip this out and laugh along as the real picks are made:
1. Chicago
Derrick Rose, PG, Memphis
Well it didn’t take long to get our first mistake of the draft, now did it? Rose is going to be a good point guard, don’t get me wrong. But I’m not sure he’s as good as advertised — how do you play for Memphis all year with talent like that and average less than five assists a game? Meanwhile, the Bulls have desperately needed a post player for eons and have already passed on trading for Kevin Garnett and Pau Gasol. Now they’re passing on Michael Beasley? I don’t get it.
2. Miami
Michael Beasley, PF, Kansas St.
Beasley is far and away the most talented player in this draft, and his goofy personality is the only thing scaring teams off. In fact, the Heat may be scared off, too — it’s possible they trade this pick. But if so, it’s to another lucky team that will get Beasley’s 20 and 10 a night for the next decade.
3. Minnesota
O.J. Mayo, SG, USC
Here’s where it gets interesting. Nobody really knows what Minnesota will do with the pick, plus with Kevin McHale running things there’s always the chance they use it to draft a backup point guard from Rutgers. But Mayo appears to be the consensus as the no. 3 player in the draft (though I think he’s been overrated), so whomever owns this pick will take him.
4. Seattle
Brook Lopez, C, Stanford
Seattle is tough to read and a trade remains a strong possibility. But quality size is always at a premium and the Sonics have been desperate for a decent center for years, so the lure of Lopez may be too much for them to pass up here.
5. Memphis
Kevin Love, PF, UCLA
Love has been overlooked in this draft by teams focusing on his flaws — not in great shape, not a great defender, tends to get winded — instead of the one overwhelming positive: There are just very few people of his size with such a high skill level. Love can shoot and pass and is going to be a Brad Miller-esque offensive force, and I consider him the second-best talent available after Beasley. Incidentally, one rumor has Memphis trading this pick and Brian Cardinal to the Knicks for Malik Rose and David Lee, which would be grand larceny by the Knicks.
6. New York
Joe Alexander, SF, West Virginia
Donnie Walsh has been playing this draft game a long time, so I’m playing a hunch here that the Knicks alleged interest in Danilo Gallinari is a smoke screen and that the small forward they really coveted is Alexander. He worked out a second time for the Knicks this week, and he’s a top-notch athlete who took up the game at a late age but came on strong in his last year at West Virginia.
7. L.A. Clippers
Jerryd Bayless, PG, Arizona
The Clippers need guard help in a major way, and Bayless is the most talented guard left on the board at this point. Sometimes it’s that simple.
8. Milwaukee
Danilo Gallinari, SF, Italy
The Bucks’ first choice appears to be Alexander, but if the Knicks beat them to the punch they’ll end up taking Gallinari, who projects as a tougher version of Toni Kukoc. Milwaukee is desperate for small forward help, so either one of those two would fill a major need.
9. Charlotte
Russell Westbrook, PG/SG, UCLA
The Bobcats are praying that Love or Lopez lands in their lap, since they really need frontcourt help much more than backcourt, but if that doesn’t work out they’ll take Westbrook (or trade the pick to somebody who will). I question whether he’ll be more than a role player as a pro, but he’s looked great in workouts.
10. New Jersey
Eric Gordon, SG, Indiana
The Nets have been linked to Gallinari and Brook Lopez and would be ecstatic if either fell to them at no. 10. Failing that, they’ll be in best-player-available mode, and that has them eyeing Gordon, a shooter who can help stretch defenses once they trade Richard Jefferson (wait, did I just say that out loud?)
11. Indiana
D.J. Augustin, PG, Texas
A dynamite offensive player who will struggle at the defensive end, Augustin answers a need at the point and is about the best player left anyway.
12. Sacramento
Darrell Arthur, PF, Kansas
A vastly underrated player who didn’t see heavy minutes in the champion Jayhawks’ insanely deep frontcourt, it says here Arthur will surprise with his ability to score as a pro.
13. Portland
Mario Chalmers, PG, Kansas
Blazers have a need at the point and Chalmers is the kind of tough, solid role player who can fit in around Brandon Roy and Greg Oden.
14. Golden State
Kevin Thompson, C, Rider
Shout out for the Jersey boy! As the first, last, and only first-round pick from Rider, Thompson would be a bit of a surprise here, but he’s a legit prospect despite the small-school pedigree.
15. Phoenix
Brandon Rush, SG, Kansas
Suns are talking trade with anyone who will listen, but if they keep it they’ll go for Rush’s solid D and immediate impact.
16. Philadelphia
Donte’ Greene, F, Syracuse
Easy call: Sixers are in desperate need of shooters, and Greene is one of the few guys left on the board who can stroke it from deep.
17. Toronto
Kosta Koufos, C, Ohio State
Raptors are desperate for quality size, and fortunately for them this draft is awash in centers. Actually, Koufos represents pretty good value this far down, and Toronto’s huge Greek community won’t hurt any.
18. Washington
Anthony Randolph, F, LSU
Being drafted purely on potential, Randolph could go as high as no. 6. Wherever he goes, there’s a real good chance he’ll be a bust … but a glimmer of a possibility that he’ll be awesome.
19. Cleveland
Roy Hibbert, C, Georgetown
Cavs need somebody who can contribute right away in a limited role, so they’ll plug Hibbert in as the backup center and take calls for Anderson Varejao.
20. Denver
Alexis Ajinca, C, France
This pick is for sale, so it may not be Denver using it. I don’t really think Ajinca can play, but as with Randolph, somebody will take the chance based on perceptions of his upside.
21. New Jersey
Marreese Speights, C, Florida
Speights’s conditioning and commitment are issues, so he may be the new Michael Sweetney. However, he’s a real, live post scorer — something the Nets desperately need. If he falls this far, which it appears he may, he could be the steal of the draft.
22. Orlando
Chris Douglas-Roberts, SG, Memphis
I originally had them taking one of the hoards of centers here, but they also have a hole at shooting guard, and Douglas-Roberts is just way too juicy to pass up here.
23. Utah
JaVale McGee, C, Nevada
Given that the Jazz still employ a Collins twin, let’s go ahead and call backup center a weakness. Several serviceable bigs figure to be available here, including McGee.
24. Seattle
Kyle Weaver, SG, Washington St.
The Sonics need backcourt help and are trying to get more defensive-minded; Weaver is a local product (well, for now anyway) who answers both needs.
25. Houston
Darnell Jackson, F, Kansas
The Rockets are numbers guys, and if they’re looking at the same numbers I am they’ll see how productive Jackson was in his limited minutes at Kansas and find a way to plug him in.
26: San Antonio
Robin Lopez, C, Stanford
The Spurs need another strategy in the middle now that last year’s no. 1, Tiago Splitter, spurned them to stay in Europe. Lopez is the type of defense-and-energy guy they value.
27. New Orleans
DeAndre Jordan, C, Texas A&M
Hornets are another team that badly needs to upgrade the frontcourt depth, and getting the last decent college center available on the board is one way to do it.
28. Memphis
Ante Tomic, C, Croatia
Grizzlies may trade this pick, but if they keep it, they can afford to be patient while Tomic develops in Europe.
29. Detroit
Bill Walker, F, Kansas St.
A potentially explosive scorer who has battled myriad knee problems, Walker is a decent risk at this point.
30. Boston
Richard Hendrix, F, Alabama
Boston won’t need another frontcourt body if P.J. Brown comes back, but the undersized-but-tough Hendrix is too good to pass up here.
jhollinger@nysun.com