Last Week’s Upset Victims Must Regroup Quickly

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The New York Sun

A Saturday that was supposed to feature two of the biggest games of the college football season lost considerable luster after three of the four participants lost last week — each to unranked teams. Still, the Florida-LSU and Oklahoma-Texas games will have a major impact on the national-championship race and BCS berths. Rutgers was also bitten by the upset bug last week, taking a major hit in the polls after falling at home to Maryland. The Scarlet Knights need to get well in a hurry as they open Big East Conference play with a key test against Cincinnati.

Those are not the only important games in the major-conference races this weekend. In the ACC, no. 22 Clemson hosts no. 15 Virginia Tech. The Big 12 has undefeated Kansas at no. 24 Kansas State and no. 25 Nebraska at no. 17 Missouri, while in the Big Ten, fourth-ranked Ohio State visits no. 23 Purdue in a battle of unbeaten teams.

No. 10 OKLAHOMA (4–1, 0–1 Big 12) Vs. No. 19 TEXAS (4–1, 0–1), AT DALLAS Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ABC

Last week’s upset losses for Texas — waxed at home by Kansas State, 41–21 — and Oklahoma, which fell at Colorado on a lastsecond field goal, probably killed the national-championship hopes of both teams. Though Oklahoma played in the BCS championship in 2003 despite losing a game, the Sooners will have a hard time getting enough momentum from wins over the rest of the mediocre Big 12 to move up in the polls this season. Any hopes the Sooners have of getting to New Orleans include a blowout in this game and help from some other teams.

Texas may have the same record as Oklahoma, but the Longhorns look to be in far worse shape. They have struggled all year, escaping with narrow victories over Arkansas State and Central Florida before the debacle against Kansas State. Quarterback Colt McCoy, who received a concussion against Kansas State, has been cleared to play against the Sooners, but he has looked little like the player who tied an NCAA record for freshman with 29 touchdown passes a year ago. His nine interceptions this season are already two more than last year, and turnovers will doom Texas against a superior Oklahoma team.

Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford leads the nation in passing efficiency and Texas has been only pedestrian in defending the pass. If Bradford has time to throw, this game could turn into the type of rout the Sooners routinely handed the Longhorns in the early part of this decade.

No. 20 CINCINNATI (5–0, 0–0 Big East) At No. 21 RUTGERS (3–1, 0–0)
Saturday 8 p.m., ESPN2

This already has been a surprised-filled college football season, nowhere more so than in the Big East, where conference heavyweights Louisville, Rutgers, and West Virginia have combined for four losses. Instead, the top of the league standings is occupied by South Florida (5–0 and ranked eighth), Connecticut (also 5–0), and Cincinnati.

Yet with nearly the entire conference schedule yet to play — South Florida’s win over West Virginia last week was the first meeting of the season between any of the Big East’s top six teams — nobody is out of the race just yet. That certainly includes Cincinnati, which began turning heads under first-year coach Brian Kelly with an early-season rout of Oregon State.

Rutgers has no time to lick the wounds inflicted by Maryland last week and should remember well that the Bearcats ruined its perfect season a year ago. The biggest concern for Greg Schiano’s Scarlet Knights has to be the play of the defensive line, which was gashed by the Maryland run game and now faces a Cincinnati offense that is among the most balanced in the nation. On defense, Cincinnati is the Big East’s best team against the run, which could make for a tough day for Rutgers star Ray Rice. Schiano has to feel great about the development of quarterback Mike Teel, who shined in last week’s loss. Teel can carry the Rutgers offense if Cincinnati loads up to stop Rice.

A win by Cincinnati would complete an early coup d’état for the Big East’s second-tier teams, and set the Bearcats on a path where a BCS bowl could become a reality. It would also make Kelly a very hot commodity for any major jobs that come open following the season.

No. 9 FLORIDA (4–1, 2–1 SEC) At No. 1 LSU (5–0, 2–0)
Saturday, 8:30 p.m., CBS

Any chance Florida has to defend its national title begins with the first of what could be two games against no. 1 LSU. The Gators were stunned at home last Saturday by Auburn in a game that solidified concerns about a shaky pass defense. Poor secondary play and an ineffective pass rush are not exactly a recipe for success against LSU, which at times looks like it can only stop itself through mistakes or indifference.

That was the case last week against Tulane, when LSU sleepwalked for a half before waking up in time to record a 34–9 win that, coupled with USC’s threepoint victory over Washington, was enough to elevate LSU to no. 1 in the AP poll.

If LSU has a weakness, it is pass protection, where it ranks 95th in sacks allowed. Quarterback Matt Flynn was banged up after being dropped six times by Tulane. The Gators need to prevent Flynn from getting comfortable in the pocket and finding top receiver Early Doucet, who is expected to return from an ankle injury.

Offensively, Florida must figure out a way to cope with defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey, who has 25 tackles and three sacks despite facing constant double- and triple-teams. Florida quarterback Tim Tebow has been able to grind out nearly five yards per carry despite running almost exclusively between the tackles. He would be advised to avoid Dorsey’s side of the field Saturday night.

Mr. Levine is a writer for FootballOutsiders.com.


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