Promising Nuggets Off to Rocky Start

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As the the NBA off-season came to a close, it wasn’t hard to read the Denver Nuggets’ short term plans. They figured to be one of the top three teams in the Western Conference following a scorching home stretch last season in which they won 32 of 40 under new head coach George Karl.Only their roster construction, which featured three capable big men, three capable point guards, and not enough wing players separated them from a legitimate shot at conference favorite San Antonio.


In the minds of most Nuggets fans, an in-season deal, perhaps involving 6-foot-11-inch forward Nene – the big man with the fewest contractual obligations – plus one of the point guards to Boston for Paul Pierce would pave the way for a run to the Finals.


But on opening night, Nene was felled for the season with a torn right ACL. Perhaps it’s a Denver curse: Last season, guard Voshon Lenard went down for six months on opening night, and in seasons past, Antonio McDyess and LaPhonso Ellis have also suffered catastrophic injuries early in the season. Whatever the cause, Denver has gone from a dark horse pick for the Finals to a team adrift. Even winning the Northwest Division, once considered a mortal lock, is in doubt.


That may seem a lot to attribute to the loss of a backup pivotman, but Nene was one of the league’s most valuable players at his position. He posted solid averages of 16 points and 10 rebounds per 40 minutes in 23 minutes a game last season. Physically, he runs the floor very well for a big man, which is especially important to the Nuggets up tempo style. Also, in a league in which “reserve center” usually means a player with size but no ability (like the Knicks’ Jerome James) or a player with ability but insufficient size (like the Knicks’ Malik Rose), Nene’s daily double was a vital part of the Nuggets game plan.


The empirical evidence is even more compelling. Those 32-8 Nuggets, who figured to improve with the return of Lenard this year, stumbled out of the gate to a 1-3 record this season, including two losses to the Los Angeles Lakers, whose only non-Denver game was a 10-point loss to shorthanded Phoenix.


To paraphrase an old saying, you can’t win a spot in the playoffs in the first weeks of the season, but you can lose one. If Denver doesn’t right the ship quickly, it may find Utah running away with the division and prospects for homecourt in any playoff series narrowing.


So far, the Nuggets have been giving center Francisco Elson and hybrid forward Eduardo Najera most of Nene’s minutes. Elson is a generic reserve pivotman who can rebound a little, establish presence in the paint, and score in the absolute easiest of circumstances.


With the 6-foot-8-inch Najera, the lineup goes small – something that was a hallmark of Karl’s teams in Milwaukee – but the Nuggets have yet to succeed with that style. In their second loss to the Lakers, the Nuggets were made to look silly in a 112-92 drubbing. All night long, the Lakers drove the middle at will and every starter shot better than 50%. When Karl called on Najera, Denver’s defense improved a little as he racked up three steals on lazy Laker passes. But Elson proved to be little help inside, and the Lakers cruised to an easy victory.


Before Denver fans go into full panic mode, it’s important to remember that Nene was, after all, a reserve. Starters Carmelo Anthony, Kenyon Martin, and Marcus Camby can do the most to negate his absence.


Anthony began the season on a high note, calling for the ball on the low blocks and repeatedly abusing Spurs defensive ace Bruce Bowen.Primarily a jump shooter early last season, Anthony thrived in Karl’s offense, taking the ball to the rim much more often. Anthony, who’s averaging 18.5 points a game on 48% shooting, is still all of 21, and his game should take a big step forward this season.


Martin was a bit of a disappointment in his first season out west last year.The former Nets power forward is a good finisher in transition, but he lacks a goto move in the half-court offense. With teams looking to slow the Nuggets’ break, he will need to broaden his offensive repertoire.


Camby, who’s averaged a double-double in his last two seasons, is off to a smoking start, shooting 62% from the field so far and getting open repeatedly on backdoor cuts for alley-oop passes.


Right now – small sample size caveats in effect – the trio is combining for 101.6 minutes a night, only a slight increase over last season’s average of 99.4. This hints that Karl is unwilling to overload on his frontcourt starters’ minutes, so a deal is probably imminent.


Some Knicks fans have taken note that point guard Earl Watson, on whom the Nuggets spent their midlevel exception, has yet to see much court time (in Sunday night’s blowout, he was a DNP coach’s decision), and are hoping that the Knicks can lure him to town by sending Rose or Maurice Taylor to Denver.


Karl and Nuggets GM Kiki Vandeweghe will probably regard those as last resorts, preferring instead to go after Milwaukee’s Dan Gadzuric, who is getting squeezed out of the mix in the Bucks’ big man rotation, or the Clippers’ Chris Wilcox. But the Bucks and Clips are both winning, and will probably be unwilling to rock the boat with a trade that doesn’t pay immediate dividends. Furthermore, both teams are well-stocked at point guard and, thanks to the Kenyon Martin deal, the best the Nuggets can offer in draft choices is the 76ers’ first-rounder in 2007.


Any trade scenario still amounts to Denver using its chips just to get back to where it was when the season began, rather than improve on that promise. This would make the Nuggets a longshot to advance beyond the Conference Finals, a big blow to fans at the Pepsi Center who thought that this year’s team might finally bring Series D to town.


mjohnson@nysun.com


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