When evaluating the Rangers’ chances in their second-round series against the Pittsburgh Penguins, one thing is all but certain: They must win tonight’s Game 3 at Madison Square Garden. In NHL history, the teams that have taken a 3-0 series lead have won 147 times in 149 tries, or just about 99% of the time.With Sidney Crosby leading the Pens’ potent offense — and the red-hot Marc-Andre Fleury between the pipes — the Blueshirts shouldn’t expect to buck that trend.

Now, the Rangers and Penguins are similar from top to bottom, and it’s not surprising that each of the first two games was essentially decided by one goal (the Pens’ second goal in Game 2 came when Henrik Lundqvist was pulled for an extra forward on the ice). But while the scores have been close, some important elements haven’t been. They all point to the same conclusion: In order to take control of this series, the Rangers must begin to properly assert themselves and take control of the flow of play.

While the Pens haven’t yet lost a game in these playoffs, they are certainly beatable. Fleury has been stellar thus far, posting an immaculate 6-0 record, a .944 save percentage, and a 1.5 goals-against average. A key reason why he’s been so successful is because the Pens’ high-power offense has kept opponents on the defensive.

Facing an average of only 27 shots against per game, Fleury is simply not being challenged often enough. Given his propensity for surrendering big rebounds, it’s critical that the Rangers start firing more shots his way. Through the first two games of this series, the Rangers have fired only 50 shots at Fleury, and they’ll need to be more prolific if they’re to regain control of the series.

Part of the difficulty in executing this strategy is that the Pens’ blueliners have a propensity for blocking shots. During the regular season, five Penguins defensemen finished among the top 60 in blocked shots (an astounding statistic, given that there are 30 NHL teams and only so much ice time to divide). True to form, the Pens’ rearguards blocked 22 shots during Game 2, while the Rangers blocked only nine shots, no question a key to Pittsburgh’s victory.

But while the Pens’ defensemen are willing to put themselves in harm’s way to make life easier for Fleury, they are not without their flaws. Each rearguard’s weaknesses are somewhat unique, but the same strategy should yield positive results when trying to knock each rearguard off his game.

Brooks Orpik’s stickhandling and passing abilities are well below average, and he should be pressured aggressively every time he handles the puck. Moreover, Orpik’s zeal to deliver hard hits often puts him out of position, something the opportunistic Rangers forwards should also be watching out for.

Every time plodder Hal Gill finds himself in a footrace with one of the Rangers’ speedier forwards, it becomes more likely that either an odd-man rush or an obstruction penalty will be the desirable result. Gill is one of the NHL’s tallest rearguards, and he has an exceptionally long reach, but he’s far from agile on his skates; playing a speedy cycling game down low is one big key to getting him off his game.

And aggressively attacking the likes of Sergei Gonchar, Kris Letang, and Robert Scuderi should also yield positive results, though that trio has proven to be more competent when participating in the Pens’ puck-possession game.

Scott Gomez has done a decent job of rushing the puck into the Pens’ zone, but his linemates haven’t crashed the net effectively enough. Giving speedy playmaker Petr Prucha some time alongside Gomez is a test worth trying, if only for the first period. If a fire can be lit under Prucha — and playing in a playoff game at Madison Square Garden should certainly do the trick — he can be a difference-maker for New York.

Brendan Shanahan has a long and distinguished career as a top-tier sniper, and he has certainly earned a spot in the Hall of Fame. But at 39 years old, he no longer possesses the foot speed needed to properly take advantage of a spot alongside Gomez. If the Rangers continue failing to capitalize on Gomez’s attributes, it’s a fait accompli that they will fall in this series.

On the other side of the ice, and perhaps most importantly of all, the Rangers’ defense needs to get back to the pack-like mentality that made them one of the most underrated blue line corps in the league. There isn’t a single Norris Trophy candidate on the Rangers’ blue line, but their collective ability to block shots and skate the puck out of harm’s way — and the consistency with which they’ve gotten support from the forwards — has defined them. At least until this series.

No doubt, Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are difficult to contain. Absent the presence of a neutralizing shadow (such as the Devils’ Jay Pandolfo), the Rangers effectively need to play mistake-free hockey in their own zone, rarely if ever getting caught out of position. In the series’ first two games, the Blueshirts surrendered far too many odd-man rushes, a recipe for disaster against the Pens. Bucking that trend — and getting back to the style of play that got them here — is critical.

One player the Rangers haven’t needed to worry much about is Marian Hossa. While he has consistently been of the league’s most feared snipers during the regular season, Hossa’s play slips noticeably when the games matter most. With only 15 goals in 61 career playoff games, he scores approximately half as often during the postseason as he does during the regular season, a statistic certainly worth noting when he becomes an unrestricted free agent on July 1st. Put simply, whoever signs him will likely be overpaying.

So the Rangers’ plan for Game 3 should be simple: An aggressive forecheck, disciplined defense, and rock-solid goaltending from Lundqvist are the ingredients that make the Rangers a cup contender. And to beat the Penguins, they really shouldn’t need anything more.

Mr. Greenstein is the editor in chief of InsideHockey.com.