1973 and All That
What happened that year when the dollar began its long slide?

Itâs the âdollarâs worst showing since 1973,â a headline in the Financial Times declares. The greenbackâs weakest performance in five decades comes as investors ârethink their exposure to the worldâs dominant currency,â the FT reports, making it the âworst first half of the year since the end of the gold-backed Bretton Woods system.â Herewith a short primer on an annus terribilis in which began the long slide of the greenback that is the marker of our economic crisis.
Two years before, in 1971, President Nixon had abandoned Americaâs pledge under Bretton Woods to redeem in gold at the rate of a 35th of an ounce all dollars presented by foreign governments. That ended the greenbackâs gold convertibility, which had been a feature of constitutional money since Alexander Hamilton served as the first treasury secretary. Even so, the dollarâs legal weight in gold, and official exchange rates, were left unchanged by Congress.
âThe intention was to put pressure on other countries to revalue their currencies,â among âother concessions,â Craig Elwell of the Congressional Research Service reports. America âdid not officially move to a âfloatingâ rate,â he adds. In the following months, officials pursued efforts to officially devalue, in tandem with other nations, the dollar in terms of gold. In March 1972 Congress set a lower gold value of the dollar at a 38th of an ounce.
Yet âthere continued to be no convertibility into gold â even for international transactions,â Mr. Elwell reports. The new weight was merely âthe official price at which the United States neither sold nor purchased gold.â Even so, it proved âimpractical to maintain the new exchange rate,â Mr. Elwell says. In February 1973, Treasury set another devaluation, to a 42.22nd of a gold ounce. That, too, was hard to keep up, per Mr. Elwell, so âthe dollar was left to float.â
That triggered the dollarâs worst year, until today. The failure in 1973 to return to convertibility, or hold the exchange rate, at a 42.22nd of a gold ounce, rattled currency markets. The Arab oil embargo that year, triggered in part by the abandonment of a gold-backed dollar, didnât help matters. Yet even though the dollarâs lower gold value âwas made official in September 1973,â Mr. Elwell says, that was âlong after it had been de facto abandoned.â
So by the fall of 1973 the writing was on the wall for the gold-backed dollar, as the greenbackâs plunge signaled the onset of the stagflation era. For a few years, the dollar by law retained a weight in gold. In 1976, though, Congress âmade official what was already true in reality,â and the dollarâs gold weight âwas removed from statute,â Mr. Elwell explains. âThe monetary system officially became one of pure fiat money.â
Thatâs the context in which the dollar is, 52 years later, having another bad year. This time, the greenbackâs poor showing isnât measured by a plunge in its gold value, but merely a downward gyration vis-a-vis competing forms of fiat money. Pimcoâs Andrew Balls tells the FT thereâs still room to fall, raising the prospect of âa significant weakening in the US dollarâ even if there is âno big threat to the dollarâs status as the worldâs reserve currency.â
Thatâs but small consolation, though, seeing as how the dollarâs reserve role enables the fiscal profligacy that underpins Americaâs budget and trade deficits. Thatâs why monetary sage James Grant has described the dollarâs reserve status as a kind of âpoisoned chalice.â If the dollarâs weak performance this year is stirring echoes of 1973, it only serves to mark how far the dollar has fallen since the days when it was convertible into gold.