Ahead of Midterms, Biden Is Sending Mixed Signals on Ukraine

Just days before America votes in the midterm elections, signs are emerging of a possible pivot in the White House’s messaging on the war in Ukraine. While America’s robust support of Kyiv in its struggle to oust Russian forces is unchanged, various reports point to a growing awareness in the Biden administration of the dangers of a protracted conflict in Europe.According to a new report in the Wall Street Journal, the national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, has in recent months held confidential talks with top advisors to the Russian president, Vladimir Putin. While the particulars are not public, the broader topics broached reportedly included efforts “to reduce the risk of a broader conflict over Ukraine and warn Moscow against using nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction.”That’s according to American and allied officials who spoke to the Journal. Those officials said Mr. Sullivan has spoken with his “direct counterpart” in the Russian government, Nikolai Patrushev, and has been in contact with a foreign policy advisor to Mr. Putin, Yuri Ushakov. While it was not clear how many times Mr. Sullivan spoke with his Russian interlocutors recently, the bilateral dialogue has some precedent. On March 16, just weeks after Russian forces invaded Ukraine, the White House said in a tweet that Mr. Sullivan spoke with “General Nikolay Patrushev, Secretary of the Russian Security Council, to reiterate the United States’ firm and clear opposition to Russia’s unprovoked and unjustified invasion of Ukraine.”The Hill reported that President Biden “engaged in talks with Putin before Russia invaded Ukraine in late February, but publicly disclosed communications have largely been limited to military-to-military conversations in the months since.” As recently as September, Secretary Blinken said in an interview with a “60 Minutes” host, Scott Pelley, that he had privately warned the Kremlin “to stop the loose talk about nuclear weapons.”News of the national security advisor’s conversations with Kremlin officials comes on the heels of a report in the Washington Post that Washington has “privately asked Ukraine to show it’s open to negotiate with Russia,” but there is more to that headline than meets the eye. In the first place, Russia’s supposed willingness to negotiate rings hollow more than eight months after the invasion. Sources told the Post that the privately made request to Ukraine was more of a calculated attempt to make sure that Kyiv can shore up the support of other countries.“Ukraine fatigue is a real thing for some of our partners,” one unidentified U.S. official said. There is growing acknowledgment of the risk that Ukraine could lose some of its accumulated international support. Although President Zelensky has not ruled out discussions with Russia altogether, he signed a decree on October 4 banning any talks with Mr. Putin himself. That’s an understandable move, given the destruction that the Russian strongman is still bringing to Ukraine, but one that sparked concern in some European and other countries that the costs of the war in terms of escalating food and energy prices could spike even further.Billions of dollars in military aid and other forms of assistance from Western allies, led by Washington, have done much to keep Ukraine in the fight. On Friday the G7 foreign ministers vowed to continue supporting Ukraine. But a former prime minister of Italy, Giuseppe Conte, on Saturday participated in a march through Rome attended by about 30,000 Italians calling for peace in Ukraine and urging Italy to stop supplying Kyiv with arms. Mr. Conte said that negotiations should be prioritized. The new Italian premier, Giorgia Meloni, has been vocal in her support for Ukraine but others in her governing coalition, such as Matteo Salvini and a former premier, Silvio Berlusconi, have been less unequivocal. It is precisely such cracks in a unified response that Washington through its communication with Kyiv apparently seeks to seal up.The cost of checking Russian aggression is also becoming an issue for some politicians in America, arguably more among some Democrats than Republicans. Still, it raises the question: Is Mr. Biden trying to modulate his public stance on Ukraine ahead of Tuesday’s vote?

Ahead of Midterms, Biden Is Sending Mixed Signals on Ukraine

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