In the latest head-spinning turns on Ukraine, the Trump Administration yesterday restored military and intelligence aid to Kyiv, won Ukrainian support for a ceasefire proposal,  and put final touches on a rare earth mining agreement. And, oh, yes, President Trump invited President Zelensky back to the White House.

This crescendo of 180-degree policy flips follows a week so bleak for Ukraine that Bloomberg headlined last weekend: “Ten Days That Shook Ukraine’s World.” Mr. Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff is slated this week to travel to Moscow to meet with President Putin.

“It takes two to tango,” Mr. Trump told reporters of his 30-day ceasefire proposal accepted yesterday by Ukrainian negotiators in Saudi Arabia. “Hopefully President Putin will agree to that also, and we can get this show on the road.”

A few minutes earlier at Jeddah, Secretary Rubio had emerged from eight hours of talks to announce: “We will take this offer now to the Russians, and we hope that they’ll say ‘yes,’ that they’ll say ‘yes’ to peace. The ball is now in their court.”

“We’re going to tell them this is what’s on the table. Ukraine is ready to stop shooting and start talking. And now it’ll be up to them to say yes or no,” Mr. Rubio told reporters.  “If Putin decides not to support the push for a temporary ceasefire, it will dramatically alter the optics of the war and position Russia as the main obstacle to peace.”

Last month, Mr. Trump talked at length by telephone with the Russian leader. Last week, the American president predicted, with a note of mystery: “I also think that Russia wants to make a deal because in a certain different way, a different way that only I know, they have no choice.”

Publicly, the Kremlin says it will make no concessions.  On security guarantees, a make or break issue for Ukraine, Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, last week “categorically” rejected any deal that would allow European troops to act as peacekeepers in Ukraine.  He told reporters in Moscow: “We see no room for compromise.” 

On Monday, Russia’s foreign ministry released a magazine interview with Mr. Lavrov. He calls for the eradication of the “root causes” of the war, referring to “the need to eliminate threats to Russia’s security from the Ukrainian and Western directions in general, which have arisen as a result of NATO expansion to the east.” He demands that Ukraine stops “exterminating everything that is in one way or another connected with Russia and the Russian world.”

Yesterday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned Russians against giddiness about Mr. Trump. “Don’t rush to put on rose-tinted spectacles,’ he told students and professors at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics. “We always need to hope for the best, but be prepared for the worst. And we must always be ready to defend our interests.”

The Institute for the Study of War’s Russia team leader, George Barros, predicts that Russia will stick with a hard line. He posted Friday on X from Washington:  “Russia, not Ukraine, is the obstacle to peace…Ukraine has offered many concessions to start peace processes. Russia has offered zero.”

The Ukraine director of the Atlantic Council, Peter Dickinson, agrees, writing last night that Russian “diplomats have repeatedly stated they are against a ceasefire and would seek a deal that safeguards Russia’s ‘long-term security.’” Mr. Putin, he adds, “has ruled out territorial concessions and said Ukraine must withdraw fully from four Ukrainian regions claimed and partly controlled by Russia.”

Mr. Putin will have to walk a fine line in his meeting this week with Mr. Trump’s envoy to Moscow. On one hand, the Russian leader apparently does not want to make concessions necessary for Ukraine to survive as an independent, free-market democracy.

On the other hand, Russia’s leader does not want to spoil his relationship with Mr. Trump and to lose what could be his best chance to wind down a costly war. Mr. Witkoff is expected to dangle before the Russian leader one of the most coveted invitations in the world: a bilateral summit with the American president.

Watching from the sidelines, British and European leaders are finally applauding Trump diplomacy.

Prime Minister Starmer called the Jeddah accord “a remarkable breakthrough.” He added: “The ball is now in the Russian court. Russia must now agree to a ceasefire and an end to fighting too.”

The leaders of the European Commission and the European Council said in a joint statement: “This is a positive development that can be a step towards a comprehensive, just and lasting peace for Ukraine. The ball is now in Russia’s court.”

For Kremlinologists, a behind-the-scenes nudge toward peace may come from an unexpected quarter. On Sunday, a Communist Chinese state channel, Phoenix TV, aired a seven-minute report on a Ukrainian artillery unit shelling Russian positions. It was the first time in three years of war that Chinese television has broadcast a war report from the Ukrainian side.