Russia’s highly anticipated military parade at Moscow today falls short of a charade, but neither is it likely to mark a turning point in the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine as the invasion enters its 75th day. With a few exceptions, the annual show in Red Square commemorating the defeat of Nazi Germany will flaunt less military hardware than in processions past, as Vladimir Putin’s war to the south strains Moscow’s resources. There is heavy fighting in eastern Ukraine and around Kharkiv amid mounting fears Moscow could launch an invasion of Moldova from the breakaway region of Transnistria. From Moscow, Mr. Putin drew parallels between the Red Army’s fighting against the Nazi troops and the Russian forces’ action in Ukraine, the AP reported Monday morning. He described the military campaign in Ukraine as a timely and necessary move to ward off “an absolutely unacceptable threat just next to our borders.” The keeper of the Kremlin added that Russia “has preemptively repulsed an aggression” and again scolded the West for failing to heed Russian demands for security guarantees and a rollback to NATO’s expansion. This left Moscow no other choice but to launch an action in Ukraine, he argued.As huge missiles are towed through Moscow’s Red Square and a planned flyover will feature fighter jets showing support for the war, Ukraine will be desperately battling to stop a hoped-for military breakthrough, the Moscow Times reported, adding that civilians continue to bear the brunt of the bloodshed. President Zelensky confirmed that 60 people were killed in a Russian air strike on a school in the eastern village of Bilogorivka, making that one of the highest one-day tolls since Moscow’s forces invaded on February 24.Even though Mr. Putin’s gigantic Ilyushin Il-80 plane, known as “the flying Kremlin,” was to take part in a flyover at Red Square, the Moscow Times noted that the set piece military parade will see significantly fewer soldiers and pieces of equipment compared to last year. Observers have linked this to the significant losses sustained by Russia in its war. According to Red Star, a website linked to the Russian defense ministry, 129 military vehicles and 10,000 personnel are expected to be on display this year, compared to 191 military vehicles and about 12,000 military personnel in 2021. The somewhat diminished pomp dovetails with the latest assessment from the British defense ministry that Russia’s stockpile of precision-guided munitions has been heavily depleted, while “at the onset of its invasion of Ukraine, Russia publicly promoted its ability to conduct surgical strikes and limit collateral damage,” according to the British statement. It added that “Russia will likely struggle to replace the precision weaponry it has already expended.”Battlefront KharkivWhile TV cameras are focused on the pageantry in Red Square today, pitched artillery battles are playing out in the vicinity of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-biggest city and one that Mr. Putin has been trying to pummel into submission for several weeks already. Hundreds of apartment buildings have been destroyed or damaged, including one that was part of a national museum. Yet Russian forces are losing ground outside Kharkiv as Ukrainian counterattacks steadily eject them from the villages around it, the Kyiv Independent reported today. The newspaper noted that while Russian fire was more precise early on in the war, indirect fire is now the main method of engagement as Ukrainian forces push their enemies out of their positions around the city. That may also presage bigger battles ahead. The Institute for the Study of War, an American think tank, said the Ukrainian army is retaking territory along a broad arc around Kharkiv as opposed to a focused thrust, which indicates an ability to launch larger-scale offensives than what has thus far transpired. As the Russians realize the growing risk of losing their positions within artillery range of the city, it might compel Moscow to call up reinforcements. Municipal authorities at Kharkiv reported that on May 5 a 15-year-old volunteer was killed when Russians shelled the Feldman Eco Park near Kharkiv. That victim was helping to evacuate animals from the park’s zoo.Making a Move on Moldova?Questions are swirling over Moscow’s intentions with respect to Moldova and the self-proclaimed separatist state of Transnistria. At Chișinău, the Moldovan capital, a former career diplomat who served as Moldova’s ambassador to America, Igor Munteanu, told a Politico reporter: “What started as concern is quickly turning into panic” because “there are statements coming from the Russian side that make it clear Moldova is a target and there may be plans to invade from Transnistria.” Attacks in Transnistria late last month, including a strike on a government building at the rogue state’s self-styled capital, Tiraspol, were widely seen as false flag operations by the Kremlin and a precursor to pushing the war on Ukraine farther west.There are growing signs of panic within the Moldovan government itself that Moscow could use Transnistria as a launching pad to send in its troops. Last week a top EU official, Charles Michel, pledged military support to Moldova. In a subsequent press release Moldova’s ministry of foreign affairs emphasized that “that assistance does not cover lethal weapons.”Were Moscow to catch wind of any Western arms shipments to Moldova, self-restraint would not likely be on the Kremlin’s menu. While Mr. Putin covets a conquest of Odessa, that would be a monumental challenge, even with the might of the Russian Black Sea fleet behind him. By contrast he could, given the opportunity, make mincemeat of little Moldova.
