As West Races To Supply Ukraine With Tanks, Germany Leans Toward Dropping Export Ban

As Ukrainian generals plot spring offensives for the table-flat steppes of Eastern Ukraine, Germany is expected to drop its self-imposed, post-World War II ban on exporting battle tanks.On Thursday, Boris Pistorius takes office as Germany’s new Defense Minister. Within hours, he meets at Berlin with the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley. At the top of the agenda is the export of German-made Leopard 2 tanks — either directly from Germany or via re-export from Poland and Finland. The decision is expected to be announced Friday at a meeting of Western defense officials at Ramstein Air Base.In a cascade of announcements of tank deliveries, Western powers have given cover to Germany. Haunted by history, Germany is reluctant to antagonize Russia by sending battle tanks to Ukraine. In the summer of 1943, Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union fought what became the largest tank battle in history. Waged in the plains around Kursk, about 100 miles east of Ukraine, the six-week battle resulted in the destruction of almost 10,000 tanks and assault guns.One year ago, as Russia prepared to attack Ukraine, Germany’s Defense Minister at the time, Christine Lambrecht, offered to send to Ukraine 5,000 helmets. After a series of additional gaffes, Lambrecht resigned on Monday. Mr. Pistorius is of a different mettle. A Cold War-era veteran of Germany’s military, the Bundeswehr, Mr. Pistorius served for the last decade as Interior Minister of Lower Saxony, a job that brought him in frequent contact with the military.To help Germany break its tank export taboo, a string of Western nations announced tank exports to Ukraine over the last two weeks. Last weekend, Britain announced it is sending 14 Challenger tanks to Ukraine, the first Western shipment of main battle tanks to Ukraine. Britain also will send 30 AS-90 self-propelled artillery units.“Ukraine has shown that armor is important,” the British Defense secretary, Ben Wallace, said Monday. A Senior Conservative parliamentarian, Bernard Jenkin, said in the House of Commons that the Ukraine war exposes those “fashionable commentators decrying the idea that modern battle tanks have any utility in modern warfare.”Looking ahead to spring battles, the director of CNA Russian Studies, Michael Kofman, said last week on his podcast “War on the Rocks” that “Each side’s ability to take and hold territory is determined in large part by its ability to field tanks and other heavy vehicles more reliably.”On Friday, France announced that by March it will send an unspecified number of AMX-10 RC “tank killer” armored vehicles to Ukraine. On Wednesday, Canada’s Defense minister, Anita Anand, visited Kyiv and pledged 200 Senator armored personnel carriers. The United States has promised 50 Bradley fighting vehicles and Germany has pledged 40 Marder fighting vehicles. Poland has said it will send 14 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine — if Berlin lifts its export veto.Lithuania’s foreign minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis, told Reuters at Davos Wednesday that he expects Germany to allow re-export. “I’m confident because this is what I’m hearing here, talking with other leaders,” he said. “There is momentum.” There are 2,000 Leopard 2 tanks in use by 13 European armies, according to the European Council on Foreign Relations.Also at Davos Wednesday, President Zelensky told the World Economic Forum that the West should speed up deliveries of tanks and air defense units. Looking ahead to April, when the mud season ends on the steppe, he said: “The supplies of western tanks must outpace another invasion of Russian tanks.”The Kremlin blasted Britain Monday, apparently seeking to intimidate Chancellor Scholz. A Putin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said Monday: “These tanks are burning and will burn just like the rest.” A pro-Kremlin presenter on Rossiya 1 state television, Vladimir Solovyev, said any Western country which supplies advanced weapons to Ukraine should be considered a legitimate target for Russia. “De-facto, Britain has entered the war,” Mr. Solovyev said on his Sunday night talk show. “I consider Britain is now a legitimate target for us.”President Putin said Wednesday that due to Russia’s “military-industrial complex” victory is “inevitable.” Speaking to workers at a St. Petersburg air defense factory, he said: “Victory is assured, I have no doubt about it.”Russia has lost almost four times as many tanks as Ukraine in the war, according to Oryx, a Netherlands-based open-source intelligence defense analysis website. Oryx says Russia has lost 1,619 tanks — 951 destroyed, 536 captured, 73 damaged, and 59 abandoned. In contrast, Ukraine has lost 449 tanks — 265 destroyed; 144 captured; 2 damaged; and 16 abandoned.Basing its number only on confirmed photographs, Oryx numbers are widely used as minimum baselines. By contrast, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry claims its soldiers have destroyed, damaged or captured 3,130 Russian tanks and 6,225 armored personnel carriers.Ukraine’s top military commander, General Valery Zaluzhny, has asked Western countries for 300 tanks and 600 armored personnel carriers. On Tuesday, General Zaluzhny met General Milley for several hours in southeastern Poland, near the Ukrainian border. Although the Pentagon did not provide details on the talks, a briefer noted that American soldiers are training a 500-person Ukrainian mechanized battalion in Germany and that American soldiers in Oklahoma are training Ukrainians to use the sophisticated Patriot air defense system.The Patriots are part of $3 billion in weapons approved by the Biden Administration on January 6 — the single largest transfer of arms to Ukraine since Russia invaded nearly one year ago. The New York Times reports that the Pentagon is shipping 300,000 155-millimeter shells from a secret stockpile in Israel. About half of the rounds have already been shipped to Europe. They are to enter Ukraine through Poland.

As West Races To Supply Ukraine With Tanks, Germany Leans Toward Dropping Export Ban

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