ATHENS — Three of the European Union’s Baltic states, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, as well as Poland have begun blocking entry to Russian citizens with EU visas, but a quixotic new travel option for sun-starved Russians has emerged.

It is the so-called Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, the northern third of the Mediterranean island that Turkey seized after a 1974 invasion. Just days after Washington announced the lifting of an arms embargo against the internationally recognized Republic of Cyprus, the Turkish newspaper Milliyet reported that Moscow has given the go-ahead for flights to begin in November  to the TRNC from Russia. A specific airline was not mentioned. 

The move is already inflaming tensions in the Mediterranean, with Greece and Turkey at loggerheads over a range of issues in the Aegean Sea and with Cyprus, though further east, not for the first time caught in the middle. That is because since 1974, the population of the southern portion of the island consists mainly of Greek Cypriots, with Turkish Cypriots almost exclusively in the Turkish-occupied north.

Stoking tensions even more is that the Turkish president himself, Tayyip Erdogan, will reportedly be aboard the first flight from Russia on November 15. This could be seen as a characteristically opportunistic move on the part of Mr. Erdogan, who as it happens is set to inaugurate the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus’s new Ercan Airport on that date. 

In the near term, the ramifications of doing so may be more political than commercial. Currently the vast majority of travelers to Cyprus enter via international airports at Larnaca or Pafos, both situated along the island’s southern, Greek Cypriot coast. 

The island’s original international landing field, Nicosia International, has sat abandoned for more than 40 years in a demilitarized buffer zone that runs the length of the island. President Erdogan’s presence at the opening of a newly expanded airport north of the divided capital of Nicosia may be a not-so-subtle step toward the path of annexing the occupied zone outright. 

The prospect of that happening would be far likelier to bring Greece and Turkey to war than any maritime disputes in the Aegean Sea, which would likely be self-limiting due to the small size of the islands there; some are scarcely more than rocks. Cyprus is different. Greece and Turkey are both guarantor powers, as is Britain, which maintains two vast bases on the island.  Turkey only invaded the island in 1974 in response to a Greek-backed Cypiot coup that aimed to unify Cyprus with Greece. 

These dynamics, dormant but present nevertheless, are not lost on either Ankara or Moscow. A Turkish general election is coming up in June 2023, and Mr. Erdogan knows that the more he comes out swinging against Greece and Greeks in general, the more it appeals to his domestic political base.

The Kremlin too is more than content to stir the Cypriot cauldron, and not just to provide beach holiday alternatives to Russians who were not able to visit the Republic of Cyprus this summer due to the bans on entry of Russians such as are now in force in the Baltics and Poland. It is because of NATO.

The president of the TRNC, Ersin Tatar, told Milliyet that in respect of the flight announcements, “We would welcome it if such a development occurs with Russia in the context of Turkey’s balance policy” because “such a development would be a very important step for the TRNC, this is how recognition begins, the important thing is economic movements.”

Keyword, “recognition.” The Republic of Cyprus is a full member of the European Union — including, if only theoretically, the Turkish-occupied north. Should a solution to the Cyprus problem eventually come about that sees the two sides of the island reunified, it would make Cyprus a natural candidate for NATO membership.

Cyprus, though, is also less than 200 miles from Moscow’s chief Mediterranean naval base at Tartus, in Syria. That fact could at some point lead to Moscow taking the unilateral step of conferring recognition on the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus — which would be a fly in the ointment to Cyprus’s natural, Western-oriented strategic tilt.

Greek state press reported that Presidents Erdogan and Putin have already discussed the recognition of the TRNC, though its source was Turkish Cypriot media and could not be independently verified. Those reports are likely to grow in number in the run-up to the inaugural Russia-TRNC flight in November. 

In addition, the Cyprus edition of the leading Greek daily newspaper Kathimerini reported that “a week after Russian troops entered eastern Ukraine, Nicosia heeded Washington’s long-standing request to deny access to Russian ships, angering Moscow that accused the Greek Cypriots of violating an explicit 2015 agreement.” That edition also noted that “as relations between the Kremlin and Nicosia have deteriorated, it was announced last week that the incoming ambassador to the Republic of Cyprus would be Murat Zyazikov, a Russian diplomat who is also Muslim, in sharp contrast with his predecessor, Stanislav Osadchiy who is an Eastern Orthodox Christian.”

It is certainly no secret that Mr. Putin has plenty of axes to grind, but a nascent Russo-Turkish axis in this fractious part of the world is a potentially perilous turn of events. Rockets are roaring in Ukraine, but Moscow and Ankara are literally playing with fire in Cyprus. Washington should be aware that while it is an island redolent with citrus groves it is also generally quite warm, even in winter, and a place where not just airplanes but also sparks tend to fly. The latter, history has shown, can be harder to control.