Biden Backs Ukraine ‘As Long It Takes’ — Until, That Is, the Summer Driving Season

Should Ukraine stop its drone campaign against Russian oil refineries to avoid an American gasoline price spike during the politically sensitive summer driving season? That is the debate sparked by a Financial Times article last week that said Biden Administration officials are pressuring Ukraine to stop sending homemade drones against Russia’s oil industry. The article came out two days after National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met at Kyiv with President Zelensky.The report came out hours after Russia launched its largest bombing attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure of the 25-month war. A week ago, Russian cruise missiles severely damaged Ukraine’s largest dam, the Dnipro Hydroelectric Station, knocked out half of the generating capacity of Ukraine’s largest private power producer, DTEK, and cut power to Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station. That briefly threatened Europe’s largest nuclear power plant with a meltdown. “This is a terrible look for the Biden administration — putting the cost of gasoline over the lives and sovereignty of Ukrainians,” Jonathan Sweet and Mark Toth write in an opinion piece issued Wednesday by the Hill. “The White House seems more concerned about keeping global and domestic oil prices below $85 in an election year than it is about stopping the revenue that funds Russian aggression in Ukraine.”Lieutenant General Ben Hodges tells BBC Ukraine: “If someone from our government reported this to Ukrainians, this is an absolutely terrible recommendation. Ukraine must ignore it.” He characterized refineries as “legitimate targets.” Military historians note that in World War II, Allied bombers first hit Axis oil refineries in Romania in 1942 and only stopped at the war’s end, in May 1945.With American Congressional leaders promising to bring $60 billion in military aid to a floor vote next week, Ukraine is sparing Russia’s refineries — for now. Yesterday, Mr. Zelensky spoke by telephone with Speaker Johnson, a Republican who has blocked Ukraine aid since last fall.Noting that Russia hit Ukraine last week with a total of 1,000 cruise missiles, drones and “guided aerial bombs,” Mr. Zelensky tweeted: “Ukraine’s largest hydroelectric power plant has gone offline.” In an allusion to his drone campaign against Russia’s energy exports, Ukraine’s president added: “We also discussed the importance of cutting off Russia’s sources of funding for its war as soon as possible.”Last Saturday, Ukrainian drones set ablaze and knocked off line the Kuibyshev Refinery at the Volga River city of Samara. Requiring a 650-mile flight, that operation may have been launched before a moratorium was imposed. Starting last January, Ukrainian drones have hit one oil export terminal, four major oil tank farms, and 12 refineries. Several targets were hit multiple times. Yesterday, Reuters estimated that this campaign has knocked offline 14 percent of Russia’s refining capacity.While Russian officials increasingly hide statistics, the bombing campaign is having a visible impact. Since January, the wholesale price of gasoline in Russia has jumped by 50 percent. On March 1, Russia suspended exports of gasoline for six months. This month, Russia, the world’s second largest oil producer and exporter, is ramping up gasoline imports from Belarus. Using bombs where Western sanctions failed, Ukraine’s campaign against Russia’s oil industry has four objectives. First, it seeks to deprive Russia’s war machine of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel — the lifeblood of a modern military. Many drone strikes are clustered in southwest Russia — the staging area for Russia’s 600-mile long front line. On Monday night, drones caused a fire at the gas-fired Novocherkassk Power Plant, in Rostov region, the source of electricity for much of Russia’s southwest.The second goal is to force Russia to spread thin its air defense capabilities. This week, Russia informed India that it is postponing delivery of S-400 air defense systems. It cited the need to use them at home. Instead of India receiving five systems this year, India will receive two in 2026. Responding to the refinery attacks, Russia’s Energy Ministry is assigning President Putin’s “private militia,” the Rosgvardiya, or National Guard, the job of defending oil facilities with missile defense systems. “Work on security is underway, it is a really urgent issue,” the gas industry development director of Russia’s Energy Ministry, Artem Verkhov, told Russia’s Federation Council on Tuesday. Frustration is so high that pro-Kremlin talk show host Vladimir Solovyov recently said on Russia-1 TV that if Russian oil refinery owners can’t protect their facilities, they should be nationalized. An independent Russian news site, Important Stories, reports that Russian energy companies have put out more than 300 tenders for anti-drone systems.Ukraine’s third goal is to deprive Russia of earnings from its number one export. Export earnings from oil and oil products account for 40 percent of Russia’s Federal budget. Refined oil products, such as diesel, gasoline and jet fuel, earn higher prices than oil. Two years ago, the West imposed sanctions on Russian oil. These proved largely ineffective as China and India have stepped forward as top buyers. The oil moves across the seas in “dark tankers” — vessels with murky ownership that often sail without insurance and with their transponders off. Fourth and finally, Ukraine’s drones bring the war home to residents of “European Russia,” home to 110 million people or 75 percent of Russia’s population. Whether it is a column of thick black smoke rising from a Saint Petersburg tank farm or a blaze of orange flame lighting up the night sky in a regional capital, the drones make the Russia-Ukraine war increasingly real to Russians.On Tuesday, at a State Department briefing at Washington, a reporter asked “if you guys have recently been telling [the Ukrainians] that they should not go after these Russian oil refineries?” Spokesman Matthew Miller responded: “It has always been our position since the outset of this war that we do not encourage or support Ukraine taking strikes outside its own territory.”Faced with restrictions on American-supplied equipment, Ukraine developed kamikaze drones that can reach 700 miles into Russia. Now, almost all of European Russia is within range of Ukraine’s Lyuti or “Furious” drone. Fashioned from fiberglass, wood and epoxy, this teleguided, pilotless drone carries a 100-pound payload. To avoid detection from the air, the drones are designed for quick assembly and launch from roads. Modern refineries are designed to contain fires and explosions. However, a well-guided drone can take out a vital unit in a production chain. Most Russian refineries were built with Western technology. Today, owners face lengthy and expensive processes to circumvent sanctions and get needed parts.Ukraine is building hundreds of long range drones in hidden factories scattered around the country. With this production, the pause in the attacks on Russia’s expensive energy infrastructure may not last long. This week, in a government shakeup, Mr. Zelensky named Oleh Ivashchenko as Ukraine’s new chief of foreign intelligence. Previously, Mr. Ivashchenko was deputy head of military intelligence, the agency that last year innovated air and sea drone attacks on high-value Russian targets.

Biden Backs Ukraine ‘As Long It Takes’ — Until, That Is, the Summer Driving Season

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