Brexit Diary: Tory Victory in a By-Election Puts the Conservative Predicament in Sharp Relief
Will Prime Minister Sunak himself be reshuffled?
Mirabile dictu — a wonder to relate. British Tories held the Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat once held by the former premier, Boris Johnson. MP-elect Steve Tuckwell won with 13,965 votes, besting his rival by only 495 votes — unlike BoJo’s surplus of 7,210 — but a win is a win. For the Conservative Government, that is the only clear answer of Thursday’s three bye-elections.
As for the other two seats contested, the Liberal Democrats triumphed at Somerton and Frome with 21,187 votes (where the previous Tory won with a 19,213 surplus), and Labour succeeded at Selby and Ainsty with 16,456 votes (where the previous Tory won with a 20,137 surplus).
Such majorities, overturned. In 2019, the Conservatives were giants; in 2023, not so much. Now, with Parliament in recess until September, Conservatives will have a lot to consider during their summer vacation.
First, the hard truth will not be lost on them that Tories didn’t necessarily win BoJo’s former seat, but that Labour lost it, due to the Ultra Low Emissions Zone policies of the mayor of London, Sadiq Khan.
The expansion of “ultra-low emission zone” fees into the Uxbridge area, charging older polluting cars £12.50 daily to enter the metropolis, well, it seems that such a policy emits its own fumes — that drive away votes.
According to a YouGov poll released at week’s end, Britons as a whole oppose the charge by a margin of 51 percent to 34 percent, rising to 72 to 20 among Conservative voters, with Labour voters themselves nearly split down the middle, 38-47. Labour does have a soft under-belly.
This vulnerability is hidden somewhat when considering its 18-point YouGov lead over the Tories — 43 percent to 25 percent. Yet its leader, Sir Keir Starmer, has suffered from increased scrutiny as putative prime minister-in-waiting.
In light of the UK paying significantly more for energy than America and many European countries, Sir Keir is criticized for the left-wing policy of restricting new drilling leases in the oil-rich North Sea.
Meanwhile, the Labour leadership tacking to the center on social policy respecting the National Health Service, childcare, and university funding has angered the progressive left, with several prominent officials resigning from the party.
Neither of the two main party leaders, it seems, is popular in the country. Recent YouGov polling detailed by the Daily Express, gives Premier Rishi Sunak the support of only one in four Britons, with two-thirds having an unfavorable opinion. Adding insult to injury, Mr. Sunak’s favorability rating — the favorable rating minus the unfavorable rating — is at an all-time low of negative 40.
Nor is the Labor leader, Sir Keir Starmer, the people’s sweetheart, either. He enjoys the support of a mere one-third of survey respondents, with 54 percent having an unfavorable opinion. His favorability rating, meanwhile, has fallen from -14 in June to -22 in July.
As for Tory thoughts during their summer recess, when the fear was a hat-trick loss in those three bye-elections, the rumor was that backbencher MPs would be writing party management, the 1922 Committee, letters of no-confidence in their leader, Mr. Sunak.
Having kept Uxbridge and South Ruislip, will they now decide to stay with their chief? Or will the staggering losses in the remaining ridings keep them disgruntled and on course to settle a score with Mr. Sunak?
Why not? The prime minister had been planning to shuffle his shuffle in light of the bye-election fiasco. If you’re going to replace underperforming ministers with fresh faces who promise a better outcome, then why stop short at the worst performing minister of them all, the First Minister?
As it is, parliamentary party malcontents are starting small, with Brexiteer Tories targeting the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Housing and Communities minister, respectively Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove.
“They’ve spent so many years pretending to be Conservatives whilst basically being useful idiots for the statist Whitehall blob,” one senior Conservative is quoted.
“These high tax, high spend, high regulation policies of decline are annoying people who want politics out of their life so that they can get on and start making things and getting on in life,” the former minister suggested. Well, I say sarcastically, no time like the present to start putting the Brexit principle into practice.
This is the great issue of the day, underlying why the majority of Britons voted for Brexit in the first place, thus privileging “Social power” over “State power.”
The great canard of “market failure” is that government can step in when free markets fail. The fallacy doesn’t factor in the realities that markets are far more responsive to consumer dissatisfaction than the State. Just ask Bud Light. Or Target. Or Disney.
What needs more attention, therefore, is the problem of “government failure.” Perhaps critics have got their thinking all in a muddle, and what is needed is more “marketable” answers to the problems of the State, rather than allowing politicians the comfort of complacency.
As for the government failure in question, can a reshuffle fix what ails the Conservative administration? Again, the Daily Express reports that Mr. Sunak, spooked by calls to cashier Messers. Hunt and Gove, has “bottled” any reshuffle until September. Just as well.
Are there really Tory saviors just waiting on the backbenches ready for the call to get the Government back on course? More important still, is there someone, anywhere in Parliament — hint to Lord David Frost in the Upper Chamber — with the courage to lead Conservatives to a fighting chance against their Labour opposition at the next general election?
