British Expert, in Rare Rebuke, Warns That ‘Kyiv Can Lose an Awful Lot’ If It’s Behind the Drone Attack on Moscow

It would be easier for everybody if this were all a videogame, but a coordinated drone assault on Moscow today showed that after more than a year of exhausting war, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is spiraling into new territory — literally.The New York Times reported that following yet another Russian bombardment of Kyiv, at least eight drones targeted the Russian capital’s civilian areas on Tuesday morning. Although no injuries or significant damage were reported, the incident instantly ratcheted up tensions and that, according to one British expert, is likely to continue. A defense analyst, Michael Clarke, told Britain’s Sky News that if Ukraine was behind the attack then politically, “Kyiv can lose an awful lot by this.” He added that it would “disquiet Kyiv’s backers in the West” and “increase the narrative that Putin and people around him can use to prove the Ukrainians are trying to destroy Russia.” The Kremlin “will also say — though it isn’t true — that NATO is behind this,” Mr. Clarke told viewers.Ukraine was quick to deny responsibility for Tuesday’s attacks. President Zelensky’s top communications strategist, Mykhailo Podolyak, told a morning television program: “We have nothing to do with this,” but coyly added that people in the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, were probably “watching with pleasure” the continuous Russian bombardment of their city. The Kremlin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, told reporters: “It is completely clear that we are talking about response acts by the Kyiv regime to very effective strikes on a command center” in Ukraine.For Russia to accuse and Ukraine to deny is a familiar pattern with respect to cross-border attacks that have penetrated Russian territory. If Ukraine was behind this latest one, there could well be some gain, because there is no question that the drone barrage makes Moscow look weak. One Russian who thought so is the head of the Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin. In a social media post directed to the Kremlin leadership, if not to President Putin himself, Mr. Prigozhin said, “Smelly scumbags, what are you doing? Get your a–es up from the cabinets you’ve been put in to protect this country!”The Moscow governor, presumably more calmly, said that several drones were shot down before they reached the capital and that three were taken out by jamming their control systems. Still, it is obvious that Russian civilian air defenses are coming up short. A lot of Muscovites were spooked by the explosions, and for good reason. A drone swarm is not at all a videogame. The always measured Mr. Clarke emphasized that Ukraine is treading a delicate line with its many supporters — of whom Britain and America are the biggest but not only. Military strategists might quietly applaud Ukraine’s taking the war to the Kremlin’s doorstep — and not for the first time — and there could be short-term dividends for Ukraine showing its mettle in the drone wars. Yet proponents of a more integrated European security architecture outside the aegis of NATO, such as President Macron, will hardly take a shine to this kind of calculated risk that could be construed as less shadowy than showy. Neither will certain political echelons in places like Hungary and Turkey, each of which have important roles to play in the region.Even Greece, arguably a more vital NATO partner than unpredictable Turkey, has lately joined Hungary in that country’s hesitation with regard to backing new sanctions against Russia.Then again, expect the Poles to be pleased. After all, the Polish president, Andrzej Duda, has just approved a bill that will create a commission to investigate Russian influence on Polish politicians.Has Ukraine’s policy of strategic ambiguity on cross-border attacks reached its sell-by date, though? That is an open question, but more strikes like the ones on Tuesday are likely, as is the continued heartless Russian bombardment of Kyiv and other key locations in Ukraine.While no one doubts that Russia is the villain in this mess — just ask Senator Graham, for whose arrest the Russians have issue a warrant — in time certain American lawmakers of both parties are likely to voice concerns about President Biden and Secretary Blinken’s lack of clarity on war strategy. Foreign policy can only run on auto-pilot for so long before, like even the best-made drones, it simply crashes and burns.

British Expert, in Rare Rebuke, Warns That ‘Kyiv Can Lose an Awful Lot’ If It’s Behind the Drone Attack on Moscow

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