As the last sequins are sewed onto costumes and the final coats of paint are drying on the floats to be featured in tomorrow’s Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade, the view from Wall Street is more somber.

Last week, Macy’s lowered its holiday sales forecast and dropped its fourth-quarter sales estimates. Its stock has dropped to $28.16 a share from $30.65 a share one week ago.

“We have a negative outlook right now on Macy’s because its integration of the May stores is taking longer and is more problematic than we had thought,” a senior analyst at Moody’s Investors Service, Edward Henderson, said. A weak holiday sales season, with consumer spending dampened by rising energy prices, a weak dollar, and a slowing housing market, will add to the company’s woes, he said.

Macy’s, which owns Bloomingdale’s, paid $11 billion two years ago for the May Department Stores chain, which included Foley’s, Marshall Fields, and Filene’s. The deal, which included putting the Macy’s moniker on more than 400 of the May’s stores and brought the chain’s total stores to more than 850, has been bumpy. Macy’s made several blunders, including retiring the promotional discount coupons that May’s had favored, cutting sharply into sales. In the Midwest, it has struggled to hold onto Marshall Field’s customers, who see Macy’s as an unwanted downmarket alternative.

“With any significant change like this, there are likely to be some growing pains,” a senior fashion analyst at Tobe, Lori Holliday Banks, said.

The Cincinnati-based company, which was formerly called Federated Department Stores, downgraded its sales estimates for the year to as much as $26.6 billion; three months ago, it was expecting sales totaling as much as $26.8 billion. It also announced that the fourth-quarter charges related to the conversion of May’s stores has increased by as much as $70 million, from just $10 million in August, and it slashed its fourth-quarter revenue forecast by $100 million, to about $8.9 billion.

Other negative news included the information that sales at stores that have been open at least a year could be down 2% or up as much as 1%, from an earlier forecast predicting sales would be flat or increase as much as 2%. Also, the company announced it may defer some or most of the $1 billion remaining in its stock repurchasing program, which would hurt its share price.

“We believe we will compete successfully in the fourth quarter, despite what continues to be a challenging economic environment,” the company’s chief financial officer, Karen Hoguet, said in a statement.

Macy’s is not alone in facing a difficult holiday season. The turmoil in the markets, plus an unseasonably warm fall, has created a rough spending environment. The S&P Retail Index, which tracks spending among all retailers, tumbled to $407.06 at the close of the markets yesterday, from $435.73 one week ago.

“With high gas prices, subprime mortgage woes, and strange weather patterns, we believe consumers are going to be very cautious with their spending,” a retail analyst at Brean, Murray, Carret & Co., Eric Beder, said. He is predicting that department stores such as Macy’s could be worse off than luxury stores or discount retailers, and could actually give up market share to the lower-end discounters.

Despite all the negative news, the chain did post a profit in the third quarter of $33 million, or 8 cents a share, from a loss of $3 million, or 1 cent a share, one year ago. Analysts discounted this result, saying it was largely the result of a one-time lower tax rate. Macy’s also said that it has seen better home-goods sales as a result of launching an exclusive line of Martha Stewart products.