New York State’s manufacturing numbers are stronger than expected, with the conditions index slipping only slightly in November, to 27.37, compared with 28.75 in October, according to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey published yesterday.

“After climbing significantly in October, the general business conditions index held its ground in November,” the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said in a statement, adding that 46% of respondents reported that conditions had improved in the industry.

The finding is in contrast with a new report out yesterday from the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, which said the risk of a recession has climbed to at least 50%. The nonprofit business group is also forecasting that manufacturing production growth will decline to just 1.9% this year, from 4.7% in 2006, and that inflation-adjusted GDP growth will slow to 2.1% in 2007 and to 1.3% in 2008. Its MAPI Quarterly Economic Forecast also predicts the unemployment rate will be 4.6% this year, and 5.3% next year.

“The U.S. economy in the past has experienced a recession from fewer shocks than we are now experiencing,” the chief economist at Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, Daniel Meckstroth, said in a statement. “By itself, the housing collapse would probably not cause a recession, but when combined with a credit crunch, falling housing prices, record oil prices, falling corporate profits, low consumer confidence, and decelerating employment growth, the risk of recession has climbed to at least 50%.” The Empire State Manufacturing Survey found that the prices manufacturers are paying are higher than they are receiving, indicating they are having a tough time passing on higher costs to their customers. The index measuring the prices paid increased to 42.9 — its highest level in more than a year — from 36.05, while the prices received index edged down to 11.9 from 15.12.

Respondents to the New York survey also said employment fell in November to 10.6 — its first decline since June — and that over the next six months general business conditions will worsen, with the index falling 20 points to 30.5. “The degree of optimism regarding conditions six months ahead deteriorated,” the New York Fed said.

As for the MAPI forecast, it predicted some positive news in addition to the mostly grim outcome. Inflation-adjusted spending for computers and electronic products should rise 11.5% in 2007, and 10% in 2008, it found. Also, exports are expected to continue outpacing imports by a wide margin: Inflation-adjusted exports will rise 7.7% in 2007 and 8.7% in 2008, while imports will increase 2.1% this year and 1.5% next year, the forecast said.

“If the U.S. economy is able to avoid a recession next year, it will be due primarily to the declining value of the dollar and strong global growth,” Mr. Meckstroth said.