Volcker’s Stance May Offer View Of Obama’s

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The entry of the hero of the anti-inflation wars of the 1980s into the public debate over recent moves by the Federal Reserve may provide an opening into the monetary policy that would be followed during an Obama presidency.

Paul Volcker, a former Fed chairman who endorsed Senator Obama earlier this year, this week gave a resounding critique of the Fed, deriding its decisions to bail out Bear Stearns and to allow the dollar’s steep depreciation. His decision to enter the fray couldn’t come at a better time for Mr. Obama, who will likely benefit from having such a well-known economic figure backing his campaign during a period of economic slowdown.

“Obama needs Volcker,” the political consultant Hank Sheinkopf said. “There is only one Volcker, and who better to help Obama prove that he has the ability to deal with the largest issue concerning voters — which isn’t the war, it’s the economy.”

As another former Fed chairman, Alan Greenspan, is derided by critics who argue his policy of keeping interest rates low has led to the current market slowdown, Mr. Volcker is more important than ever as a heavyweight persona in the universe of central bankers. “Paul Volcker is the last god of central banking left standing,” the director of international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations, Benn Steil, said. “He has an impeachable reputation.”

Best known for breaking the back of inflation by raising interest rates to 21% when he was Fed chairman, Mr. Volcker is a proponent of a strong dollar — he even supported a fixed-exchange rate, whereby the dollar would be fixed against other currencies so as to prevent a steep slide in its value. In a speech at the Economics Club of New York on Tuesday, he criticized the weakness of the greenback, and took issue with the Fed for orchestrating JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s acquisition of Bear Stearns.

“Out of perceived necessity, sweeping powers have been exercised in a manner that is neither natural nor comfortable for a central bank,” he said.

Mr. Volcker also said the current environment is reminiscent of the 1970s, when, as now, there were rapidly rising commodity prices and a devaluing of the dollar. At the time, Mr. Volcker instituted a series of interest rate hikes to curb inflation.

Prices of food and oil are rising in America, with crude oil topping $112 a barrel yesterday and consumer prices climbing more than 4% last year, the fastest pace since 1990. Meanwhile, the Fed has aggressively cut the interest rate six times since September, to 2.25%, and the dollar has continued to plummet against the euro and other currencies. It may be that Mr. Volcker’s expertise could come in handy now, experts are saying.

“This is a perfect time for Volcker; he is courageous and arrogant, but he knows what to do,” an economist at Carnegie Mellon and a historian of Fed policy, Allan Meltzer, said.

Mr. Volcker in January threw his gravitas behind Mr. Obama, declaring that the Democratic presidential hopeful could “provide the potential for strong and fresh leadership.” He added: “After 30 years in government, serving under five presidents of both parties and chairing two nonpartisan commissions on the public service, I have been reluctant to engage in political campaigns. It is time to overcome that reluctance.”

Although Mr. Volcker is well-respected, not everyone sees him as a savior who curbed runaway inflation: “There is a minority school of thought that doesn’t attribute the end of inflation to Mr. Volcker,” the president of H.C. Wainwright & Co. Economics, David Ranson, said. Instead, they say his policy of raising interest rates so dramatically did little more than create the most severe depression since the 1930s. “I don’t think we should look to Volcker to bring inflation under control,” Mr. Ranson said.

This is not the view of many experts, however, who say that in addition to strengthening Mr. Obama’s economic platform, Mr. Volcker’s presence could help him recruit a strong team of advisers. “Paul Volcker has a gravitational field around him that could attract other important advisors to Obama’s campaign,” a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, Vincent Reinhart, a former director of the Federal Reserve Board’s Division of Monetary Affairs, said. “Would you feel better if Obama announced his key adviser was to be Paul Volcker? The answer has got to be yes.”


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