Canada 2.0: Conservative Party in Australia Appears Poised for Defeat Amid Frustration With Trump’s Tariffs

Eighty-one percent of Australians say they disapprove of the tariff, and only 36 percent of Australians trust that America will act responsibly, according to a new poll.

Lukas Coch/AP
Prime Minister Albanese holds a Medicare card as he addresses the National Press Club in Canberra, April 30, 2025. Lukas Coch/AP

President Trump’s tariffs could be set to tank a conservative political party’s chances in another election abroad, this time in Australia. 

Earlier this week, the liberal party of Canada experienced a dramatic comeback as its candidate for prime minister, Mark Carney, won the election — a remarkable reversal from just months ago when polls showed the party trailing by 20 points. Meanwhile, the conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre, lost his seat in parliament. The change came after Mr. Trump took office and began talking about making Canada the “51st state” of America, and imposed tariffs on the Canadian economy. 

That phenomenon seems set to happen again as Australians are set to go to the polls on Saturday in an election that appears to have slipped away from the country’s conservative party, known as the Liberal Party, amid Mr. Trump’s return to power and his decision to impose tariffs on America’s allies and adversaries alike. 

Last year, Liberals were optimistic about their chances of winning the election, as a major issue for voters was the cost of living. A poll from January showed conservatives winning 52 percent of the vote to the left-wing Labor Party’s 48 percent.

However, in the months since, as Mr. Trump has entered the White House and imposed a 10 percent tariff on Australia, the election has been upended. It now appears that Prime Minister Albanese and his party could even extend their majority. 

Eighty-one percent of Australians say they disapprove of the tariff. A poll conducted by the Lowy Institute found that 36 percent of Australians have trust that America will act responsibly.  

The Lowey survey also found that after Mr. Trump announced the tariff on April 2, 35 percent of undecided Australian voters said they were less likely to vote for the conservative opposition leader, Peter Dutton, because of the American president.

A Redbridge poll released this week found that 48 percent of Australian voters say that Mr. Trump’s policies are a concern to them. The survey also found Labor receiving 53 percent of the vote to the Liberals’ 47 percent. 

Mr. Dutton has proposed some policies that have been compared to those of the Department of Government Efficiency in Mr. Trump’s administration, such as requiring government workers to return to the office and slashing thousands of jobs. However, they have been met with backlash from voters and Mr. Dutton later abandoned them.


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