Did Iran Just Flinch? Despite Talk of a Direct Iranian Strike on Israel, Tehran Would Face Formidable Obstacles

It would be a mistake to let those deep blue skies over Israel deceive — they are thoroughly if invisibly protected. That is something that the hardline Iranian regime knows and has to be weighing as it vows to avenge an airstrike in Syria on April 1 widely attributed to Israel. In that attack the Iranian consulate at Damascus was destroyed and a dozen people were killed, including two prominent Iranian generals. According to some reports, three commanders were killed. At the funeral on Saturday for one of them, the Iranian chief of staff, General Mohammad Bagheri, said, “The time, type, and plan of the operation” to avenge the alleged Israeli attack “will be decided by us, in a way that makes Israel regret what it did.”The day after that threat was made, Israel’s defense minister, Yoav Gallant, said in televised remarks: “We know how to act forcefully against Iran in both near and distant places.” According to his office, following an operational situation assessment with senior Israeli military officers, Mr. Gallant emphasized that the defense establishment had “completed preparations for responses in the event of any scenario that may develop vis-à-vis Iran.”Also on Sunday, Iran’s semi-official ISNA news agency published an illustration showing nine different types of Iranian missiles it claimed are capable of hitting Israel. Can they, though? Israel has an integrated, multilayered system of missile defense that is the envy of many a larger nation. Piercing it would be no easy task. The bottom layer is the renowned Iron Dome, a mobile system that is designed to intercept short-range surface-to-surface rockets. Iron Dome is also the world’s first missile defense system developed to tackle the threat of short-range rockets and UAVs.During Operation Protective Edge in 2014, Iron Dome units repelled 735 rockets that were fired by Hamas terrorists operating in the Gaza Strip. Over the course of two weeks in May 2021, Iron Dome successfully destroyed 90 percent of incoming Hamas rockets from Gaza.The middle layer of missile defense, called David’s Sling, is designed to intercept larger-caliber rockets, short-range ballistic missiles, and medium- to long-range surface-to-surface missiles. The system’s components are designed to strike their targets directly. Forming part of the upper layer of defense is the Arrow-2, which acts by intercepting medium to long range missiles with two-stage capability. Arrow-3 interceptors are primed to thwart long-range missiles. According to Israel’s defense ministry, the Arrow-3 system’s capabilities “enable longer range, higher altitude (exo-atmospheric), and more precise ballistic missile engagements” and “together with Arrow-2, it significantly expands the State of Israel’s defense capabilities.”In November, just more than a month after Hamas’s attacks of October 7, Israel deployed Arrow-3 for the first time. That interception of an incoming enemy Houthi missile was a success. Israel also possesses American Patriot missile defense technology that is operated by the Israeli air force. The Patriot batteries use ground-to-air missile defense capabilities and incorporate radar systems with connected “shooters” to intercept incoming threats. Iran, for its part, has no proven anti-ballistic missile defense systems in place. While it is true that the mullahs unveiled a pair of missile defense systems in February, their effectiveness is not known. Were a scenario to emerge in which Israel might find it necessary to unleash its own Jericho ballistic missiles at locations inside Iran, they would likely strike their intended targets largely unhindered by units comparable to David’s Sling and the Arrow-2 and -3 systems.

Did Iran Just Flinch? Despite Talk of a Direct Iranian Strike on Israel, Tehran Would Face Formidable Obstacles

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