Does Polish Push for Regional Clout Risk Playing to Putin’s Hand?

Poland wants to see Russia “lose hard” in Ukraine, according to a new report in the German newspaper Die Welt, but that unassailable aim could risk a rift within the NATO alliance that could ultimately play to Vladimir Putin’s long-term advantage. While NATO has mostly presented a united front against Moscow throughout the nearly year-long Russian assault on Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states have often taken a much more aggressive stance politically, if only because they stand to lose the most should Mr. Putin’s belligerence go unchecked. Germany and France have by contrast taken a more measured approach to the conflict despite the increasing willingness of both countries to send more advanced weaponry to Ukraine. Yet if Paris and Berlin have consistently punched below their weight in this conflict, Poland has unambiguously set a goal of becoming an abler regional player. As evidence of this, the German newspaper points out, Warsaw has boosted its share of GDP for defense spending to 3 percent, considerably higher than the 2 percent that Washington has set as a benchmark for NATO member states. Like many in Ukraine, Poland would also like to see the end of the Russian Federation, at least in its present, hyper-bellicose form. This is a different tack from that espoused by President Macon and Chancellor Scholz, who want to punish Moscow but also, and in part due to the ongoing economic fallout, would like to see the war wind down sooner than later.The Polish prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, said at a meeting with his Ukrainian and Lithuanian counterparts at Kyiv in November that “in this war instigated by Russia, there can be only one outcome: Either Ukraine wins or all of Europe loses.” On an almost daily basis since then, Polish politicians say what German and French officials usually do not dare to, namely that Russia must be weakened in its brutal war of aggression against Ukraine at all costs. Speaking to Die Welt anonymously, a senior Polish diplomat said, “Our goal is to stop Russia once and for all. We should not get involved in a lazy compromise.” Echoing the sentiment of a former top American diplomat, the official added that “a ceasefire on Russia’s terms would only lead to a lull in fighting until Russia regroups,” which “is not in our interest.”Poland has not only taken in more Ukrainian refugees than any other country, but it also began arming the Ukrainian military even before war broke out, according to the German report, with Warsaw sending Kyiv “modern howitzers, drones, hundreds of tanks, and other heavy equipment.” That Poland would become the main NATO-member staging ground for the supply of material to Ukraine after the Russian invasion in February was a natural development. Poland and Ukraine share a border that stretches for 329 miles.The German report intimated that Poland has sometimes been restrained by other NATO partners from getting overly involved militarily in Ukraine. While it did not provide specific examples, it is worth recalling that last March, Poland wanted to dispatch several of its MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine via an American airbase in Germany, but Washington swiftly batted down that offer over what the Pentagon spokesman, John Kirby, called at the time “serious concerns for the entire NATO alliance.”That there are competing camps within NATO is hardly a surprise, given certain geographic realities. While Hungary is something of an outlier, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and the Baltic states want Russia out of the picture completely, at least as far as its regional meddling and warmongering are concerned.The Polish view differs from that of the German government, which is more hesitant. As the director of a Polish think tank, Justyna Gotkowska, told Die Welt, “Poland and Germany differ fundamentally in their assessment of what the European security architecture should look like after the end of the war.”The unnamed Polish foreign ministry official stated, “We are not aiming to destroy the Russian state, but to weaken Russia, making it unable to act, in order to ensure peace in Europe for at least several decades,” and hinted that important differences over strategy persist with Germany and France. Consider the AMX-1O RC armored vehicles that France has announced it will be sending to Ukraine: Although the reconnaissance capabilities of the vehicles are formidable, they are not actually tanks.Where the Polish drive to ramp up the types of weapons made available for Ukraine will end remains unclear, but the view from Warsaw is that tanks and long-range missile systems are going to be necessary to blast the Russians back to where they stood before February 24. Despite Ukraine’s Herculean efforts on the battlefield, bolstered largely by the support of Washington and London, the aegis of NATO notwithstanding, every day of war comes with staggering costs. Prolongation of hostilities arguably works in Russia’s favor, and any splinters in NATO’s united front clearly play to Mr. Putin’s advantage.A former NATO supreme allied commander, James Stavridis, told New York radio station WABC this week that he doesn’t see either the Russians or Ukrainians having a breakthrough moment this winter. “When I put it all together, more war to go. Ukrainians win it on the ground. Russians winning in the skies,” he said.Yet Mr. Stavridis prefaced that by saying “On the Ukrainian side, the pressures from the West, in order to avoid further costs, are going to become significant.”That sober assessment, and those mounting pressures, will make the view from Poland, in the heart of central Europe, more relevant than ever.

Does Polish Push for Regional Clout Risk Playing to Putin’s Hand?

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