Wyoming Waterloo Might Loom for Trump

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The New York Sun

Could Congresswoman Liz Cheney defy President Trump and go on to hold her seat in Congress? That depends on the appetite of Wyoming Democrats and unaffiliated voters to cross party lines and back her in the state’s primary election in August. Ms. Cheney’s re-election would mark a reversal of fortune after House Republicans ousted her from a leadership position due to her break over the results of the 2020 election.

Since then the cantankerous congresswoman has emerged as a bête noire of Mr. Trump in her role on the House committee investigating the events of January 6. She’s even suggested the former president could be liable for criminal prosecution. That hasn’t helped her standing in the Cowboy State, which gave 70% of its votes to Mr. Trump in 2020. The State’s Republican Party censured her in February.

Mr. Trump has backed Harriet Hageman, a lawyer and failed candidate for governor, as his choice among the candidates who have stepped up to challenge Ms. Cheney in the pending primary. Some money from Mr. Trump’s major backers, including Peter Thiel, has started to come in for Ms. Hageman — herself a former anti-Trumper. Can Ms. Cheney survive in what the Washington Post calls “the Trumpiest State in the nation”?

It may shock Mr. Trump’s supporters, but there is a path to re-election for Ms. Cheney. To pull it off, she’d need to win at least some GOP votes and convince many Democrats and unaffiliated voters to cross over for the primary. Wyoming’s primary is “partially open,” the National Conference of State Legislatures reports, meaning voters can change their party on the day of the vote to support the candidate of their choice.

In a potential nine-way primary set for August 16, Ms. Cheney would need about 20 percent of the Republican vote to win. The primary requires but a plurality to win, with no run-off. So whichever candidate has the most votes is the winner, even if it’s far from an outright majority. A victory by Ms. Cheney would be a feather in the two-gallon hat of the state Democrats, who haven’t won a statewide race in decades.

There are about 280,000 registered voters in Wyoming, according to its Secretary of State. Of those registered, 200,000 are Republicans. Just 46,000 are Democrats and 35,000 are unaffiliated. Might enough avail themselves of the opportunity to deliver a black eye to Mr. Trump? Ms. Cheney is certainly giving it her best shot. She’s raised an astonishing $5.1 million in 2021, with $3.8 million now on hand.

Ms. Hageman, by contrast, has raised less than $500,000. In 2018, she ran statewide in a Republican primary for Governor and came in third. Despite the disclosure of unflattering quotes she made about Mr. Trump in 2016, when she supported Senator Cruz, Mr. Thiel — a Trump backer — has announced his strong support. Mr. Thiel will be hosting a fundraiser for Ms. Hageman in late January.

In a December poll of Republicans only, Ms. Hageman is tipped to beat Ms. Cheney by 39 percent to 19 percent. Bear in mind, though, that the poll excludes the Democrats and unaffiliated voters who might switch to the GOP to vote for Ms. Cheney. Hence the drama. If Ms. Cheney loses the primary, she might still be able to mount a write-in campaign. Senator Murkowski of another deep-red state, Alaska pulled off that stunt — and won.

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Image: Detail of “Battle of Mont Saint-Jean or the Battle of Waterloo,” by Antoine Charles Horace Vernet and Jacques François Swebach. Early 19th Century. Via Wikimedia Commons


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