Europe’s escalating energy crisis, which is driving to record levels the costs of natural gas and other energy sources, has the potential to be Europe’s “Lehman moment,” with energy companies sitting on $1.5 trillion in margin calls they may be unable to meet without state intervention.

Energy companies that trade in the derivatives markets have been so battered by the recent price fluctuations that many are said to be hemorrhaging cash, and the capital markets guaranteeing those trades are drying up quickly. A senior vice president for Norway’s Equinor, Helge Haugane, told Bloomberg over the weekend that government bailouts will be necessary, and said the $1.5 trillion figure is “conservative.”

The governments of Finland and Sweden have already promised at least $33 billion to backstop the energy companies, and other countries in the region are considering similar moves.

“This has had the ingredients for a kind of a Lehman Brothers of energy industry,” Finland’s economic affairs minister,, Mika Lintila, said on Sunday.

The 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers, one of Wall Street’s largest investment banks, precipitated a financial crisis the likes of which the United States had not seen since the Great Depression.

Dwindling supplies of natural gas tied to the invasion of Ukraine and Russia’s decision to close critical pipelines connecting it with customers in Western Europe have contributed to skyrocketing energy costs across the continent. Russia announced on Monday that the Nord Stream pipeline would remain closed indefinitely, and blamed Western sanctions for the disruption. 

Among the hardest hit has been Germany, which has set aside some billions for loans for strapped energy companies on top of multiple rounds of support packages — the latest for 65 billion euros — for customers who have seen their home energy bills multiplying in recent weeks. European Union-wide measures also have been proposed, up to and including price caps on natural gas.

Before the war in Ukraine, Russia supplied some 40 percent of Europe’s natural gas needs, and an even higher percentage of Germany’s needs. With the shutdown of the Nord Stream pipeline, gas shipments to the region from Russia have declined by 89 percent compared to the same time last year.

Beyond the impact on energy companies’ bottom lines, the shortages have caused rampant inflation across the continent as energy costs spread through the economy. European companies have scrambled to find alternatives to Russian gas, but most analysts say that any switchovers will take months to put into place and that without strict conservation measures the continent this winter could see rolling blackouts and shuttered factories — not to mention astronomical home heating bills.

The crisis has forced many European countries to rethink recent efforts to move away from fossil fuels in the name of slowing climate change. Germany, for example, has delayed the shutdown of two coal plants, and is also toying with the idea of keeping two nuclear plants operating beyond the dates it had planned to shut them down.

EU energy ministers are expected to meet later this week to discuss the bloc’s options. The Czech Republic, which currently holds the rotating EU presidency, has teed up a number of proposals, among them additional credit lines for cash-strapped energy companies, changes in margin requirements, and even the suspension of those markets.

“Regardless of the exact scenario, the coming winter is certain to be the most challenging Europe has seen in decades — and consumers or governments are expected to pay the price,” the head of power at Rystad Energy, Carlos Torres-Diaz, told the Associated Press. “If gas demand needs to be cut, we expect to see power supply issues emerging this month and worsening into 2023.”