The stunning victory of Nigel Farage’s populist party in local elections unleashed a monumental blow to control of elections by the Labour and Conservative parties. What remains to be seen is if it can translate the surge into a lasting movement in the next national elections.

Reform pulled support from both the major parties in Thursday’s vote. This is the first time in more than 100 years that a party other than Conservatives or Labour has been ahead in projected national vote share.

“This marks the end of two party politics as we’ve known it for over a century — it is over, it is finished, it is gone,” Mr. Farage said.

The results, however, need to be examined with caution. Many areas, including London, did not take part in the elections. Turnout was also low in many areas. The next test for Reform is if it can carry the momentum into Scottish Parliamentary elections in 2026.

With Reform gaining control of a string of local councils, it will also need to deliver on its promises to fix health services and engender economic growth. It has also made vague promises to cut waste. The party has also concentrated on anti-immigration messaging.

“With increased support comes scrutiny. Where they do win, they will need to show they can deliver the change their voters want,” the director of politics at polling firm Ipsos, Keiran Pedley, told Reuters.

Reform won a special election for a vacant parliamentary seat by just six votes. Sarah Pochin won the razor-thin victory over Karen Shore in northwest England. The seat had been a safe for Labour until the incumbent resigned after being convicted of assaulting a constituent.

That victory gives Mr. Farage’s party a fifth seat in the House of Commons. The next national parliamentary elections are not due until 2029 so the party will have a long time to build a case that it should make major gains and perhaps vault Mr. Farage into the prime minister role.

Mr. Farage’s party was initially called the Brexit Party.  After successfully championing Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union it rebranded. The party is trying to show it is more than a single-issue party.

Mr. Farage’s previous victories have failed to launch sustained growth in his movement. In 2014, he led the UK Independence Party and in 2019 the Brexit party to first place finishes in elections, but the Guardian noted that they were followed by general elections that were dominated by the Labour and Conservatives. 

As for the Conservatives, their leader says her job is to rebuild trust with the public. “We are going to win those seats back,” Kemi Badenoch said. “Other parties may be winning now, but we are going to show that we can deliver and that we are on course and recovering.”

The Labour party is also left to pick up the pieces of a record-setting decline in popularity from last year’s elections. Prime Minister Starmer said the losses were “disappointing.” The difficult assignment will be to win back popular support after raising taxes and cutting benefits for the elderly.