Gains in Iraq Alter Race for 2008

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The sharp decline in the number of American and Iraqi casualties in the Iraq war over the last five months is set to defuse one of the key Democratic election issues and bolster those presidential candidates who have opposed a quick withdrawal from the country.

Figures issued yesterday showed the number of Americans killed in Iraq during October fell to 39, from 65 in September, 84 in August, and 78 in July. In the previous three months, between April and June, American deaths reached more than 100 a month, according to the independent Web site Iraq Coalition Casualty Count.

The number of Iraqi security forces and civilians killed has also fallen sharply. In October, there were 679 Iraqi dead, compared to 848 in September and 1,674 in August. Between April and July, Iraqi deaths were between 1,345 and 1,980 a month.

The figures suggest that the surge in American troops, in which 28,500 extra fighting forces were dispatched to Iraq, is working, and confirm the view of the top military commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus, in evidence before Congress in September, that, while military progress in Iraq remains “uneven,” he believes the objectives are “largely being met.”

The slump in Iraq casualties is changing the nature of the political debate over the war in America and should offer some respite from the criticism of anti-war protesters to Senator McCain, the Republican presidential hopeful who advocated the surge and was the first to back the president’s plan, and Senator Clinton, the front-runner in the Democratic race, who has steadfastly refused to alter her view that there can be no quick reduction in American forces. The no. 2 American commander in Baghdad, Lieutenant General Ray Odierno, offered a hesitant welcome to the figures yesterday. “I believe we have achieved some momentum,” he said. “Although it is not yet irreversible momentum, this positive momentum has set the conditions for political accommodation, economic development, and basic services to progress.”

However, there was no complacency among senior military figures in Baghdad. “We are not declaring victory. It’s too early,” a spokesman for General Petraeus, Colonel Steve Boylan, said yesterday in a remark reported by McClatchy Newspapers.

The apparent success of the surge is in line with President Bush’s aim of reducing the violence in Iraq so that progress can be made in the passing of legislation that would allow power sharing and equitable oil revenue distribution between the opposing Sunni and Shiite communities.

Iraq’s minister for security, Shirwan al-Waili, said yesterday that the surge was proving successful in reducing the violence in Iraq, and in particular in Baghdad, where the internecine butchery has been at its most intense. “Because of the security plan, the violence has reduced. Baghdad is much safer,” he said on Iraqi state television. But the improved casualty figures also will alter significantly the terms of the presidential election. The unpopularity of the war had been set to dominate not only the presidential race but also the congressional elections next November, with Republicans loyal to the president’s Iraq surge strategy most at risk from voter disenchantment.

“Until recently the conventional wisdom was that the 2008 election would be dominated by the Iraq war,” a fellow at the Brookings Institution and an adviser to Senator Obama of Illinois, Philip Gordon, told the Financial Times. “But the situation in Iran is moving much more quickly, and that is where President Bush’s decisions could have consequences for whoever takes over in January 2009.”

Since the drop in Iraq deaths beginning three months ago, Mr. Obama and John Edwards have softened their outright opposition to the war and joined with Mrs. Clinton in conceding that a permanent American troop presence may be needed well into the next presidential term. The success of the surge undermines the argument of such presidential candidates as a former New Mexico governor, Bill Richardson, who as a key element of his appeal has demanded the immediate withdrawal of American troops from Iraq.

The improved figures also help maintain loyalty among wavering Republican members of Congress who are anxious about keeping their seats. “Because casualties have fallen so far, it is futile to try to persuade moderate Republicans to vote with us to compel a withdrawal” of American troops, an unnamed Democratic staffer told the Financial Times.

The decline in fatalities in Iraq is attributed to a number of factors. Sunni tribes in western Anbar province and elsewhere have joined government and coalition forces to fight against Al Qaeda; the mullah blamed for many of the abductions and killings around Baghdad, Moqtada al-Sadr, has suspended operations of his Shiite militia, the Mahdi Army; sectarian killings have been reduced; security walls have been built around Baghdad’s sectarian neighborhoods; and strict ID checks have been introduced, including biometric testing.


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