Key Sunni Leader Warns Of Unrest After Election

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

WASHINGTON – Dissatisfied with the results of the Iraqi election that were announced yesterday, leading Arab Sunni families from Mosul, a recent hotbed of insurgency activities, have passed a message to leaders of the unified Shiite voting bloc urging that the next government remove Kurdish soldiers from their city.


In an interview with The New York Sun, the second-highest-ranking Arab Sunni politician in the United Iraqi Alliance, Mudhar Shawkat, said he expected there could be unrest in Mosul, Iraq’s third largest city, if steps were not taken to include Arab Sunnis in the new government.


By telephone from Baghdad, Mr. Shawkat said, “These people are sending delegates after delegates to see me, from the top Arab Sunni families. They are seeing me to express their objections to the results of the elections, and Kurdish influence in the Mosul area. There is a lot of interference and friction that is happening. We need to neutralize this friction.”


Yesterday, the Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq announced the provisional results of the January 30 elections. As expected, the UIA received the highest number of votes, 4,075,295, enough to hold 48.2% of the seats in the new transitional national assembly. The Kurdistan Alliance, a coalition of two major Kurdish parties, came in second with 2,175,551 votes. That number will likely result in the Kurds controlling 26.2% of the seats. The Iraqi List, headed by Prime Minister Allawi, garnered only 1,168,943 votes. That total will likely net the party of the interim government appointed by America and the United Nations 13.8% of the seats of the 275-member legislative body that will draft a constitution and choose the next government. The party of State Department favorite Adnan Pachachi, an Arab Sunni, did not gain enough votes for a single seat.


Already, many leading Shiite members of the UIA are signaling their intention to reach out to the Arab Sunnis, who will be underrepresented in the new Parliament. Speaking on Al-Arabiya television yesterday, the Shiite national security adviser to Mr. Allawi, Mouwafak al-Rubaie, a critic of the interim government, said, “Iraq and its new government can’t be built by one faction or shade, and it is not possible that only two or three sects participate in this government.”


Over the next three days, the commission will hear complaints on the voting process from the parties before announcing the final seat count. One reason the announcement of the vote count has been delayed is because of irregularities in voting in Mosul and Irbil, two cities largely controlled by the Kurdistan Democratic Party, headed by Masoud Barzani.


Mr. Allawi flew to Irbil last week to meet with Mr. Barzani, which could signal an effort by the prime minister to create a Kurdish-Sunni alliance to blunt the influence of the Shiite parties. Some reports from Iraq estimated that hundreds of ballots were stuffed in the territory controlled by Mr. Barzani, whose forces sided with Saddam Hussein in 1996 when it fought the other leading Kurdish party, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan.


“There have been reports throughout the country of so-called shenanigans. But these incidents are few and far between,” a Washington representative of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, Qubad Talabani, told the Sun yesterday. “This should not tarnish what overall is a very successful election in a troubled country.”


Because of the poor showing by Arab Sunnis and complaints about ballot stuffing, Mosul’s leaders told Mr. Shawkat that violence could increase in a city already plagued by recent suicide bombings. Mr. Shawkat would not share their names with the Sun because they may still be targeted by terrorists. Many of the insurgent leaders who fled Fallujah before the coalition’s November offensive are said to be residing in and around Mosul.


“I am told by a lot of people from Mosul, from the Turkmen, Christians, and Sunnis, that they are very concerned about the power of the Kurdish parties in those areas. Do not be surprised if there is as a lot of violence that some could describe as a civil war,” Mr. Shawkat said.


Kurdish troops in Iraq’s National Guard have policed Mosul in recent months. Qubad Talabani, son of the leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, Jalal Talabani, told the Sun yesterday, “Kurdish forces are one of the reasons why there is stability in Mosul. They were called upon by the Iraqi government to go into the city to restore order. The fact that there were no major incidents in Mosul during the elections is a testament to the professionalism of the Kurdish security forces.”


Jalal Talabani is emerging as a likely candidate to become president of the new assembly. He has already started negotiations with the three leading Shiite candidates for prime minister: Ahmad Chalabi, Ibrahim Jafari, and Adel Abdel-Mehdi. All three men have also said that Jalal Talabani is acceptable for the job, but nothing more. Mr. Talabani’s son, Qubad, would only tell the Sun yesterday that his father is “one of the leading candidates for the position.”


Mr. Shawkat yesterday said that Jalal Talabani was the most likely figure at this point to emerge as president of the new Iraq, but he expressed some reservations. “If Jalal wins, it may send the message to the Arab world that an Arab country is being led by a Kurd. I think he deserves to be the president, he has done so much for our country, but is this the right time for that? Or is it better to wait?” he said.


Mr. Shawkat is the 59th name on the UIA list. He was a leading figure in the Iraqi National Congress when that organization was an umbrella group for exile parties, forming his own organization for Arab Sunni exiles. As an Arab Sunni politician who ran for office on the largely Shiite list, Mr. Shawkat is also emerging as a key emissary of the new government to the Arab-Sunni-based communities that have not fared well in the election, along with the 34th name on the UIA list, an Arab Sunni sheik who hails from outside of Mosul, Fawaz al-Jarba.


Mr. Shawkat told the Sun yesterday that he hoped the new government would reserve 30% of the ministries in the new government for Sunni politicians. “I am calling for an inclusive government which will take the ministers and executive body from outside the assembly rather than inside. I want everyone to participate, I want people to participate, especially the people who could not vote,” he said.


Mr. Shawkat also made clear the kind of Arab Sunnis he did not support as candidates for the new government. “I will not go for any Arab Sunni who have participated in violence, encouraged violence, or stood by and said nothing about violence. We are for people who reject violence and support a peaceful democratic discussion,” Mr. Shawkat said. He stressed that he hoped the new government would also focus its efforts to purge security services of Baathists who have participated in violent crimes and those at the most senior level of the government toppled nearly two years ago by the American-led coalition.


Mr. Allawi has come under fire from leading Shiite politicians for placing Iraq’s security in the hands of former Baathist officials that have tipped off the insurgency. Mr. Allawi says the security services are not as penetrated as his Shiite critics and maintains that his hiring decisions were necessary to placate the largely Arab Sunni-based insurgency. But Mr. Shawkat, who is urging the new government to reach out to Arab Sunnis, conceded yesterday, “The biggest problem with the security forces is inside the security forces.”


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