WASHINGTON — Russian voters will go to the polls in less than a week to choose the third man to lead Russia since the fall of communism nearly two decades ago.

The man expected to win the March 2 contest is a first deputy prime minister, Dmitry Medvedev. A lawyer who once taught at St. Petersburg State University, Mr. Medvedev, 42, has been a loyal ally of President Putin, serving as the outgoing leader’s chief of staff between 2003 and 2005, and as the chairman of the state gas monopoly, OAO Gazprom, since 2002.

Mr. Medvedev, who is polling at 70% in recent surveys, is running against three men who will be splitting the liberal democratic, communist, and ultranationalist votes. They are, respectively: the leader of the Democratic Party, Andrei Bogdanov, 38, who favors an alliance with Europe and is a member of the society of Freemasons; the leader of the ultranationalist Liberal Democratic Party, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, 61, and the leader of the Communist Party, Gennady Zyuganov, 63, who, as the Associated Press reported, “rarely misses an opportunity to call for more tractors for Russia’s struggling farmers.”

The three men debated last week on state-run television in a rare opportunity to garner national exposure in a country that increasingly has imposed state control on press and broadcast conglomerates. Mr. Medvedev, who is covered regularly in evening newscasts, skipped the debate.

Some are minimizing the impact of the new Russian leader, pointing out that Mr. Putin, a former KGB colonel, is expected to retain influence as prime minister. Nonetheless, the new president will assume the reins of power in a country that, while no longer one of two superpowers, has nuclear missiles pointed at North America, has been enriched by high oil prices, and has the potential to emerge as a formidable counterweight to American policies and ambitions in Iran, the Balkans, and even in space, where Russia has been balking at American plans to construct a missile shield for Poland and the Czech Republic.

“Putin is going to be the key player in all of this,” the vice president for policy at the American Foreign Policy Council, Ilan Berman, said in an interview yesterday. “He picked Medvedev, who is less confrontational, rather than Sergei Ivanov, who is more confrontational.” Mr. Ivanov is a former defense minister to Mr. Putin and a first deputy prime minister.

Mr. Berman said that while Mr. Medvedev, who has campaigned as a domestic technocrat, may be a new face for Washington, he will continue Mr. Putin’s policy of counterbalancing America in Europe and the Middle East. “Medvedev will not undo the policies of Putin,” he said. “The fundamentals will not change, which means Russia will still oppose a U.S. missile defense shield for Poland and the Czech Republic. Russia will still have a very aggressive posture towards its former satellites, and it will still seek to use countries like Iran and other Middle East rogues to balance American influence. It may look better, but it’s not going to be better.”

As a possible sign of things to come, Mr. Medvedev was dispatched yesterday to Belgrade to meet with Serbian leaders who helped fire up demonstrators who burned the American Embassy and a nearby McDonald’s restaurant on Thursday.

Another source of strain between Moscow and Washington will be the election itself, which will not meet international standards. Stronger putative opponents to Mr. Medvedev — including the chess grandmaster Garry Kasparov and a former prime minister, Mikhail Kasyanov — were disqualified from running. State-controlled press outlets have lavished coverage on Mr. Medvedev while ignoring the rest of the field. Last year, a nonprofit organization that promotes human rights, Freedom House, downgraded its rating for press freedom in Russia because “the Kremlin has extended its management of television broadcasts, while journalists face an increased threat of expensive libel cases and many reporters work in unsafe conditions.”

A former assistant secretary of defense for President Reagan, Richard Perle, said yesterday: “It’s hardly what one would call a fair election, since the potential opponents have been prevented from mounting a campaign. It is clear who is going to win, and it is clear that it does not meet minimal standards for fairness.” Mr. Perle recommended that the White House make sure to communicate that America does not regard the March 2 contest as a free and fair election.

One question for many observers is what role Mr. Putin will play after his presidency expires. The director of the program of advanced strategic studies at the American Enterprise Institute, Gary Schmitt, said he envisioned a scenario where Mr. Putin would run for the Russian Parliament and then make a bid for prime minister. “He will change the law to give the prime minister more power. When you have that much power, and you have that much money, the new guy has an interest to take you down if you don’t hold on to it,” he said.

Another scenario for Mr. Putin could be to assume the chairmanship of Gazprom and exercise his influence from the corporate realm, Mr. Berman said.