WASHINGTON — In throwing his support behind Senator Obama’s plan for a 16-month timetable for an American withdrawal from Iraq, Prime Minister al-Maliki is calculating that Mr. Obama may well be the next president of America, and betting that a successful visit by Mr. Obama to Baghdad will advance Iraqi interests in a new administration.

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It was a move aimed at ingratiating the Shiite ruling majority in Baghdad with the man they expect to win the November presidential election, American and Iraqi officials said. If it works, it could be a stroke of brilliance, putting Mr. Obama in debt to the Iraqi leader for saving what could have been a disastrous trip to Iraq and defusing what could have been a troubling campaign issue. It could also backfire if a President McCain gets the idea that the Iraqi government is betraying the American politician who, after President Bush, has risked the most on a successful Iraq.

The matter was taken up at a meeting of Iraq’s National Security Council on Thursday on the recommendation of Mr. Maliki, who had been advised by the Iraqi politician Ahmad Chalabi to express public support for the Obama withdrawal plan. Asked for a comment yesterday, Mr. Chalabi, an old hand at working the American political process to the advantage of Iraq, conveyed a statement via his Washington representative, Francis Brooke: “This is an honor I will not claim and a rumor I will not deny.”

Also supporting the decision to endorse the Obama plan was Bassima al-Jaidri, a powerful adviser to Mr. Maliki who has in the past been accused of undermining tactical and security decisions of Iraq’s army to forward a Shiite confessional agenda.

While Mr. Maliki has clashed with the American embassy over the legal status of contractors and soldiers in a future long-term troop agreement, behind the scenes the two sides had been in agreement that future American troop withdrawals should be linked to conditions on the ground.

That was, until Friday, when Mr. Maliki gave an interview to the German Magazine Der Spiegel saying that the Obama plan “would be the right timeframe for a withdrawal, with the possibility of changes.” After the interview was first published on the Internet, the White House and the American embassy in Baghdad sought clarification from Mr. Maliki. Multinational Forces Iraq even sent out a correction of the remarks in a statement by Ali al-Dabbagh, a spokesman and adviser to Mr. Maliki who sat in on the meeting with Senator Obama on Monday. But when Mr. Dabbagh briefed journalists after the Monday meeting he said Mr. Maliki believed most combat troops could exit Iraq by 2010, once again confirming the general timetable of the Obama plan.

The statements from Mr. Maliki and Mr. Dabbagh have changed the dynamics of the American presidential race for now. Democrats, who were critical of Mr. Maliki when he welcomed the surge of American troops in 2007, today are using his words to validate their position. Meanwhile Senator McCain’s position of supporting a withdrawal based on conditions on the ground rather than on what he says would be an artificially imposed timetable appears to be at odds with the sentiment of Iraq’s elected government.

The deputy director of communications for the McCain 2008 campaign, Michael Goldfarb, yesterday said, “John McCain has said he will only support a withdrawal based on conditions on the ground. It is our belief that the Iraqi leaders share that view. The disposition of a sovereign, democratically elected government is one of the conditions that will be taken into account.”

The role of Mr. Chalabi, whose party failed to gain any seats in the 2005 federal parliamentary elections, should be of interest to close watchers of the Bush administration. While Mr. Chalabi has clashed with both the American embassy and at times with Mr. Maliki, he nonetheless is still regarded among the Shiite political class as knowledgeable of American politics from his days lobbying for the Iraq Liberation Act in Washington. At the time, in the late 1990s, Senator McCain was one of Mr. Chalabi’s biggest supporters.

Mr. Brooke yesterday pointed out that Mr. Chalabi was appointed in 2007 by Mr. Maliki to chair a special committee aimed at restoring basic services to the citizens of Baghdad. “Maliki was number two in the Debaathification commission from the beginning when it was started in 2003. He has been in constant contact with Dr. Chalabi since that time,” Mr. Brooke said.

Mr. Brooke said Mr. Chalabi favors a status of forces agreement “that respects Iraqi sovereignty.”

“We are opposed to the hot button issues like immunity for contractors and the granting of Iraqi air space and the granting of permanent bases. Ahmad Chalabi has said this on a regular basis,” Mr. Brooke said.

A scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and one of the architects of the surge, Fred Kagan, said that Mr. Maliki has come under some political pressure to oppose a status of forces agreement from the Iranians, who he said have launched an information operation.

Senator Obama will arrive in Jordan today for meetings with King Abdullah. He is scheduled to arrive in Jerusalem tomorrow.