WASHINGTON – A leading Syrian dissident believes that a majority of his countrymen would support a democratic party to unseat the Baathist regime in Damascus.

Nabil Fayyad has surveyed more than 20 Syrian religious and community leaders over the last two weeks and argues that the exile-based reform party, headed by Farid Ghadry, could win a free election.

Mr. Fayyad told The New York Sun in an interview here yesterday that he intends to return to Syria later this month, where he will open an office and generate political support for Mr. Ghadry’s party. “We are trying to establish the reform party in Syria. It’s very important. My work is to help organize the party, but I will not be a candidate.”

Mr. Fayyad’s high-profile visit to America could dispel the perception in many quarters of Washington that Mr. Ghadry’s reform party has no presence inside Syria’s borders. Until recently, the White House and State Department avoided Mr. Ghadry, instead adhering to the conventional wisdom that the only viable opposition in Syria came from the country’s wing of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Earlier this year, however, Mr. Ghadry met with the principal deputy assistant secretary of state for Near East affairs, Elizabeth Cheney, who is the daughter of the vice president. The meeting, while at a low level for Foggy Bottom, was symbolically significant given that the CIA and the State Department considered Damascus a potential ally in the war on terror for the first two years following September 11, 2001. Langley even established a liaison relationship with Syrian intelligence shortly after the attacks by Al Qaeda.

Mr. Fayyad has shown continued dedication to his cause. He has published 32 books in Arabic on topics ranging from the history of Islam to Western philosophy and politics. He is also a prolific journalist – one of the toughest critics in his own language of the Ba’ath government that has ruled Syria for 42 years.

In September, Mr. Fayyad was arrested for starting an opposition party and spent three days in jail, after which he was sent to the hospital for treatment for low blood pressure. He said that he spent the following 27 days under house arrest and was not permitted to leave his room.

Last month, Mr. Fayyad was allowed to leave Syria. But before he departed, the author was approached by a man Mr. Fayyad called “a very senior government official.” “He asked me why I was going to visit Farid Ghadry,” Mr. Fayyad said yesterday. “I told him the truth. Farid Ghadry is not looking to be the president or another dictator. He wants to let the people decide who their leaders are.”

Mr. Fayyad yesterday said he believed that 65% of Syrians support what he called a “third alternative” to state Baathism and the Muslim Brotherhood. “The majority of Syrians are secularists desperate for democracy. The majority belongs to the religious minorities and the Kurds, as well as secular Muslim Sunnis with left-leaning political agendas such as the Syrian communist party,” he told an audience at the Hudson Institute yesterday.

On August 8, 2004, he launched a Web site with Jihad Nasra and Elias Hiliani for the Syrian Liberal Party that was soon shut down by the government. But before the site was taken down, 7,000 people joined the party from the Allawite city of Latikiya. Allawite is the minority Muslim sect of the ruling Assad family.

Later, Mr. Fayyad said he calculated that 65% of Syrians would support a democratic third party by surveying Maronite, Allawite, Kurdish, Sunni, and secular leaders throughout the country, a little more than 20 people total. While this hardly constitutes a scientific poll, such surveys are nearly impossible inside Syria due to state surveillance.

The withdrawal of Syrian troops last month from Lebanon provided a unique opportunity to support a nascent democratic movement in his country, Mr. Fayyad said. At the same time, he acknowledged that no single party exists today that could mobilize a mass movement by citizens, and a national opposition leader is yet to emerge. “They are leaderless today,” he said at the Hudson Institute.”And anyone who can understand their plight and help them achieve a sense of worth will be very successful in rallying the people around him.”

Mr. Ghadry said his party is preparing to do exactly that upon Mr. Fayyad’s return to Damascus. “This is a direct challenge to the rule of Bashar Assad,” Mr. Ghadry said.