In a sign that Russia’s months-long invasion of Ukraine is failing, the Kremlin has reportedly called off referendums to annex territories that it has previously claimed. First reported by Russia’s banned Meduza website, the development comes on the heels of Kyiv’s surprise counteroffensive in its northeastern region over the weekend that has seen Russian forces cut and run for their lives.

In addition to the recapture of territories close to parts of its northern border with Russia, Ukraine has now also reclaimed broad swaths of some southern and eastern regions. Moscow’s decision to call off the referendums that it has been touting for months will be seen in this context as an indication that its “special military operation” in Ukraine has now reached the point of no return — from the brink of complete disaster, that is. This is news that Kyiv and the West have been waiting for. 

Ukraine’s multi-pronged campaign to eject Russian forces from all of its territory, including the illegally occupied Crimean peninsula, is of course far from over, and it is much too soon for victory parades. Yet it is now plain to see that the Kremlin is smarting from its egregious miscalculations.

Moscow has now, according to Meduza’s Kremlin sources, indefinitely postponed referendums on “joining Russia” with the self-proclaimed Donbas republics, as well as the occupied territories of the Ukrainian regions of Zaporozhye, Kharkiv, and Kherson. In each of the latter,  Russian authorities previously installed so-called military-civilian administrations. 

There are still some Russian referendum officials in occupied Kherson, an area that  Russian troops captured early on in the invasion, and last week President Putin’s United Russia party proposed holding at least one annexation referendum on November 4, which is Russia’s Day of National Unity. The success of Ukraine’s counteroffensives has likely put the kibosh on that.

The Russian “civil-military administrations” of Ukrainian territories were slated to officially announce the start of preparations for the November referendum as soon as next week. All that is now on hold.

Washington has warned about Russian’s referendum plans for several weeks — even before Ukraine’s recent counteroffensives — and dismissed anticipated votes as a sham. Originally, the Kremlin believed that territories it captured could be officially annexed as soon as April. Projected dates for annexation referendums have been pushed back at least twice since then. The most recent deadline has already passed: September 11, the same day that regional elections took place inside Russia. 

It appears that Vladimir Putin will have little choice but to revisit his Ukraine takeover playbook. On Monday morning, Britain’s defense ministry said Russia has likely ordered the withdrawal of its troops from the entirety of occupied Kharkiv region west of the Oskil River. It added that despite the drawdown, isolated pockets of Russian forces remained in the area, but also that since Wednesday, Ukraine had “recaptured territory at least twice the size of Greater London.”

That is a lot of ground. The question is, as the Kremlin quietly scraps its misbegotten annexation schemes, when will Mr. Putin finally come around to admitting it?