Inside Iran After the American Strikes: Fear, Fractures, and the Fight for Change

When American bombers crossed into Iranian airspace early Sunday morning, they entered a country dramatically different than the one that existed only weeks ago.Tehran, a normally traffic-clogged city of nearly 10 million people, had been emptied after a week of warnings to evacuate from the Israelis and the airstrikes that followed. Security forces had set up checkpoints across highways and city roads, conducting spot searches throughout the capital. Young Iranians, as addicted to social media and a heavily censored internet as their Western counterparts, had been in the dark for days, as well. Those Iranians who the Sun was able to connect with to get a sense of what is going on inside the country agreed to speak only on the condition of anonymity or first-name use only.“Maybe I can connect for a few minutes a day, very, very slowly. Nothing loads,” one 20-something Tehran-based artist, Mehdy, who the regime has targeted for his activism through art, tells The New York Sun.“But I think everything is ready to go,” he adds on a more optimistic note. “This is the best situation for years. I am very optimistic about change.”Looking Out for ThemselvesAnother capital resident, who relocated to a rural property belonging to an extended family member five days ago, tells the Sun that there was no guidance from the government, and that there appeared to be no plan for setting up shelters or safe areas. “Everyone has to look out for themselves,” the resident said. A recent university graduate pointed out that while many Iranians, especially the young ones, want nothing more than to see the end of the regime, the prospect of Israeli and now American strikes has everyone reluctant to stage any protests and hunkered down in fear of going outside. There are rumblings of Kurdish and Baluchi separatist outfits, who have suffered immense government repression, preparing efforts to rise against the long-standing religious rule, but nothing public has materialized so far.Whether internal revolt or mass unrest is likely — or approaching — is still debatable. Iran has faced waves of turmoil in recent years. A contested 2009 national election led to the so-called Green Movement. Widespread protests in 2019 followed a government plan to hike fuel prices. In 2022, mass demonstrations surfaced following the death of Mahsa Amini at the hands of authorities. All were brutally repressed.The reformist presidential candidate at the center of the Green Movement, Mir Hossein Mousavi, has been under house arrest since 2011. Now 83, he calls for systemic reform rather than outright revolution — a stance echoed by some in Iran’s protest movements.“There are many who want change but don’t want to see it done through war and violence or foreign intervention,” another Iranian tells the Sun. “They don’t want Iran leveled with nothing left. But they believe Iran’s political system must be changed from within.”Resurging NationalismLess than 15 percent of the country’s population of 90 million is believed to support the regime. In those circles, the attacks have unleashed vocal Iranian nationalism. Sources tell the Sun that anti-Israel conspiracy theories continue to spread havoc and confusion, including rumors about Israeli bombs in computers and phones of civilians. One Iranian insider explained that the targeting of high-ranking Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps figures, all of whom played a role in the suppression and brutal crackdown of civilian protests in recent years, is viewed as much-needed “justice” that they did not think they would see anytime soon. “The IRGC is the most important instrument of state control,” the policy director at the nonprofit United Against Nuclear Iran, Jason Brodsky, tells the Sun. “Until there are defections in the military and security services, the regime will remain in control.”Next MovesIran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, appears to be preparing for his possible demise, too.In response to recent strikes, the 86-year-old religious leader is reportedly sheltered in a bunker and has prepared a line of military and clerical successors, naming three senior clerics as potential replacements. He has also instructed the Assembly of Experts to expedite selecting his successor to ensure a swift and orderly transition should it be needed, underscoring the regime’s precarious position.According to Mr. Brodsky, ending the regime is “going to take the Iranian people.”“But the U.S. and its allies can play a role in creating the conditions so they can be successful in fulfilling their aspirations,” he explained. “Degrading of the Iranian state via military force is one such step.”The unanswered question is whether there is a suitable replacement capable of opposing the current authoritarian regime. Support for outside opposition groups inside Iran remains unclear, and despite widespread internal dissatisfaction the opposition that does exist is divided and hesitant to mobilize mass action. Among the opposition, the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran, known as the MeK, which has been criticized for its past alliances with Iran’s enemies in Iraq but maintains a prominent Washington presence, continues to play a vocal role from exile. Global leader Maryam Rajavi rejects any return to monarchy, insisting, “Neither the Shah nor the regime.”The son of the late Shah, Reza Pahlavi, also called the moment a “historic opportunity” for political change. Some critics, however, don’t see either as formidable inside Iran.“Unfortunately, there aren’t many good choices. Reza Pahlavi and the MeK are vocal but too fractured to lead a post-regime Iran, leaving a void of credible figures,” the managing director, John Thomas, of a strategic advocacy firm, Nestpoint Associates, tells the Sun. “A bold, unifying leader — blending secular grit with religious appeal — is needed to steer a peaceful shift, but no such anchor exists now.”No Clear Front-RunnersA senior foreign policy advisor to the United States-Iran Chamber of Commerce, Reza Khanzadeh, who emphasized that he is speaking personally and not on behalf of the organization, concurred that “there is no front-runner as a viable opposition leader.”“Iran has a lot of highly intelligent, politically savvy, socially conscious, and charismatic individuals who could rise up and become this leader,” he tells the Sun. “However, none have done so thus far for several reasons. Either they are dead or in prison and withering away, or they are not publicly stating their intent in order to avoid imprisonment or death, or they have left the country.”Another Iranian government dissident stressed that “the future should be decided by the people of Iran inside the country” and that outside forces should stay away. “Iranians want a Western democracy. Unlike other regional countries, they are not religious, and while Islam is the main religion but, especially to the youth, is more of a culture than religion,” the dissident tells the Sun. Past protest movements “came from the heart of the Iranians, but because they didn’t have any support except verbal support, they were killed, tortured, and detained, and their houses and bank accounts were taken away. Iranian youth died while Israel sat and watched, while France only sent a statement instead of full sanctions, and Russia and China came to Iran’s rescue.”Others argue that now is not the time to turn away help, however which way it comes. “Our biggest worry now is that if the regime survives this, it will only get stronger and use that as propaganda to proclaim that not even the powerful U.S. could take them down,” Mr. Mehdy said.

Inside Iran After the American Strikes: Fear, Fractures, and the Fight for Change

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