For more than four decades, the conflict between Turkey and Kurdish forces has defined life in northern Syria, with airstrikes, military operations, and political tensions shaping the daily reality for millions and claiming over 40,000 lives. 

That might be set to change. 

The leading militant group in northern and eastern Syria near the Turkish border, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, better known as the PKK, declared a ceasefire following a call late last week from its imprisoned founder, Abdullah Ocalan, to lay down arms. 

“We agree with the content of the call as it is, and we say that we will follow and implement it,” the PKK committee stated. “None of our forces will take armed action unless attacked.”

The outfit, which is considered a terrorist organization by Turkey, the European Union, and the United States, has waged an armed insurgency for greater Kurdish rights. At the same time, Turkish military operations have relentlessly targeted PKK fighters and the communities accused of supporting them.

Mr. Ocalan’s announcement marks a potential turning point in the decades-long war, yet uncertainty lingers over whether the ceasefire will start and hold and the timeline for the PKK to disband. 

“People are worried because Turkish forces are still targeting us in the area. They didn’t stop yet,” a Kurdish writer and father of three tells The New York Sun from a village on the periphery of Kobane, Syria, this week. “People are tired. People want this war to finish.”

President Erdogan cautiously welcomed Mr. Ocalan’s appeal for a ceasefire, calling it a “historic opportunity” for peace but warning that Turkey would not hesitate to resume military operations if provoked. 

The PKK, founded in 1978 by Mr. Ocalan, has waged an insurgency against Turkey since 1984, initially seeking Kurdish independence before shifting to demands for autonomy. Kurds make up about 20 percent of Turkey’s population of 85 million. 

Mr. Ocalan, imprisoned since 1999, remains the movement’s ideological leader despite being held in isolation on Turkey’s gulag, Imrali Island.

Turkey has responded to the insurgency with relentless military campaigns against the PKK, including airstrikes and ground offensives in southeastern Turkey, northern Iraq, and Syria. Inside Turkey, authorities have cracked down on Kurdish political movements, jailing leaders of the pro-Kurdish HDP, shutting down media outlets, and restricting cultural expressions of Kurdish identity. 

Security forces have also been accused of rights violations, including mass detentions and heavy-handed military operations in Kurdish-majority areas.

So, where do things go from here?

“While Ocalan’s message is generally being reported as a straightforward demand for the PKK to lay down their arms, in its full context, the message places demands on both the PKK and the Turkish authorities to come to the negotiating table in good faith and demonstrate their commitment,” a Kurdish-focused researcher, Matt Brookfield, co-founder of the Rojava Information Center, tells the Sun. 

“If the PKK continues with their commitment to down arms, it is imperative that the Turkish authorities follow suit by not only halting its own strikes against the PKK in Iraqi Kurdistan but also bringing an end to ongoing arrests of Kurdish politicians, journalists, artists, and activists and hostile takeovers of Kurdish-governed cities in Turkey itself.”

Erdogan’s Domestic Motivations  

There may, in any event, be more to the agreement than stopping the violence. The ceasefire call will likely cement President Erdogan’s influence further, presenting an opportunity for him to consolidate power domestically and regionally. By securing Kurdish support for constitutional changes, Mr. Erdogan can extend his political dominance and possibly pursue another presidential term. 

“Erdogan wants to make it easier to change the constitution so he can seek another term in office. Right now, he’s up against constitutional limits, which technically restrict him to two terms, though he’s already pushed past that,” Non-Resident Senior Fellow on Turkey at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Sinan Ciddi, tells the Sun. 

“The issue is that no party, other than the Kurds, can give him the numbers he needs in Parliament. He doesn’t want to work with the opposition, but if he can strike a deal with the Kurds — offering them something they’ve long sought — he might be able to secure their support in Parliament to enact the necessary changes.”

Iraq, meanwhile, has welcomed the move, calling it a “positive and important step towards achieving stability in the region.” Since the 1991 Gulf War, northern Iraq, predominantly Kurdish, has operated with a degree of autonomy. 

The PKK leadership is currently based in the Qandil Mountains of northern Iraq, which has long been a point of tension between Baghdad and Ankara. In response, Turkey has quietly maintained military bases on Iraq’s soil, frequently conducting ground and air operations against Kurdish armed groups. 

In Iran, where a large Kurdish population lives, the PKK’s influence fuels tensions, with Tehran cracking down on Kurdish opposition groups it sees as a security threat. A potential Turkey-PKK peace deal could embolden Kurdish demands for autonomy or strengthen Kurdish movements across the region. 

“For Iran, this could also create pressure since Iran would be the only country left with a significant Kurdish population still in active conflict,” Mr. Ciddi said. “If Turkey resolves its Kurdish issue, Iran might have to reassess its approach to its own Kurdish population.”

Resolving the Kurdish conflict could help stabilize Syria but would require careful negotiations between Ankara and Washington. The United States-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish-led group instrumental in defeating the Islamic State, control significant territory. 

Washington’s Take

Although Washington, for years, has gone to great lengths to differentiate the PKK and the Syrian Democratic Forces, Ankara sees the Syrian Democratic Forces as one of the same, long viewing them as a terrorist threat that threatens the security of its southern border.

If Turkey can secure a deal that prevents military engagement with the Syrian Democratic Forces, it would allow the interim Syrian government primarily born out of former al Qaeda affiliate, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, to shift focus to other priorities. 

For now, multiple sides of the spectrum are championing the ceasefire as a breakthrough. 

Syrian Democratic Forces leader Mazloum Abdi has expressed support for the initiative, seeing it as an opportunity to negotiate with the Syrian government and resolve longstanding conflicts with Turkey. 

The Trump administration also welcomed Ocalan’s ceasefire call, conveying that it could help ease Ankara’s concerns about Washington’s alliances with Kurdish forces in northeast Syria and contribute to regional peace. 

“If a deal materializes where Turkey, along with the Syrian interim government, commits to stabilizing the region, that could be something the U.S. finds appealing,” Mr. Ciddi said. “It would mean less need for U.S. troops in Syria, which is something Trump—if he returns—would certainly see as a positive.”

The United States currently has 2000 troops stationed in Syria to support Syrian Democratic Forces and counter the threat of the Islamic State. Where it might get complicated is the Israeli factor.  

Israel seeks to maintain a foothold in Syria to counter any groups considered hostile to the Jewish state. Its growing presence has fueled tensions with Turkey, which aims to expand its own influence in the region. 

On Tuesday, Israel launched fresh airstrikes on Syria’s coast and ground raids in the south, aiming to prevent weapons from reaching hostile groups, a move that has heightened tensions with Syria’s new Turkey-backed government.

A defected advisor to former dictator Assad and Middle East expert, Ayman Nour, tells the Sun that preventing Turkish influence from replacing Iranian influence in the region is a key priority for Israel as this agreement takes hold. 

“Israel is concerned that a strong Turkish presence would sustain Islamist elements, which they see as a threat,” he explained. “This is why Israel has established a buffer zone and is systematically dismantling Syria’s air defense units—ensuring they can intervene and strike at any time without resistance.”

This strategy, however, puts the Trump administration in a precarious position, as it must carefully balance its alliances and long-term interests in the region. While the United States has historically supported Israel’s security objectives, it also relies on Turkey as a NATO ally and a key player in regional stability. 

A shift in influence could force Washington to navigate complex diplomatic tensions, weighing the risks of alienating Ankara against the benefits of curbing Iran’s reach—while also considering how continued Israeli military actions might impact broader U.S. interests in the Middle East.

Gains for the PKK 

What the PKK gets out of this deal, moreover, is unclear. 

“We still don’t know exactly what’s on the table. I assume that one of the key concessions will be for Turkey to halt military operations against the SDF. That would likely be one of the PKK’s demands —Turkish military inaction in northern Syria in exchange for domestic Kurdish support inside Turkey,” Mr. Ciddi noted. “My assumption is that Ocalan won’t be released outright — they likely can’t do that — but there could be some improvement in his prison conditions.”

Beyond that, a source with knowledge of the talks tells the Sun that cultural and linguistic rights for Kurds could be a leverage point to have enshrined in law and some level of autonomy inside Turkey. There is still no clear sense, however, of how far Erdogan is willing to go. 

Turkey has long restricted the use of the Kurdish language and cultural expressions, limiting Kurdish education, media, and public displays of Kurdish identity in an effort to suppress separatist movements and promote national unity.

On the ground, cautious optimism surrounds the latest ceasefire announcement, yet many remain wary, recalling the failed attempts in the past. A similar peace initiative over a decade ago saw a ceasefire that lasted two years, but it ultimately collapsed in 2015, reigniting a brutal conflict between Turkish forces and the PKK. 

“Kurds feel profoundly mixed emotions following Ocalan’s announcement, with relief after years of bloody violence mingled with suspicions over Turkey’s likely plans to manipulate the peace process to suit its own agenda,” Mr. Brookfield added. “Yet even a brief respite in ongoing Turkish attacks would be a welcome boon to Kurdish communities.”