When Argentines go to the ballot box on Sunday for midterm legislative elections, a $20 billion bailout the Trump administration has promised to President Javier Milei hangs in the balance.

Mr. Milei — one of MAGA world’s favorite Latin American leaders — suffered big losses in local elections in the Buenos Aires province last month and there are concerns his coalition could lose a legislative majority in Sunday’s midterm elections. That would effectively kill Mr. Milei’s economic reform policies.

President Trump has warned that the aid package is tied to Mr. Milei’s party staying in power. Mr. Trump said last week that, if Mr. Milei suffers a defeat, America “won’t waste” time on Argentina.

“We would not be generous with Argentina if that happened. If he loses, we are not going to be generous with Argentina. We’re going to work very much with the president. We think he’s going to win,” Mr. Trump said.  

Mr. Milei — a self-described “anarcho-capitalist” who sailed into office on a populist platform of economic reform — has been working to curb runaway inflation and restore growth since winning a landslide election in 2023. He has wielded a chainsaw as a symbol of his cuts in public spending.

Mr. Milei promised to lower taxes, cut government budgets, and end stifling regulation that has hindered economic expansion but his citizens continue to feel economic pain.

The International Monetary Fund says Mr. Milei’s policies have started to work to undo years of left-wing Peronism. Inflation has dropped from more than 200 percent to 35 percent, the lowest in five years, and IMF projections have it falling to below 10 percent in the coming years.

But Argentina has faced a renewed selloff of its peso since last month’s local election outcome.

The election losses were blamed on government cuts that have hit the middle and lower classes. Mr. Milei’s popularity has dropped as purchasing power continues to decline and public services recede. Accusations of corruption have also dogged the administration.

“I thought he would put an end to corruption, and today I feel completely disappointed,” retired teacher Jacqueline Garrahan told the AFP news agency.

“Milei didn’t have all his ducks in a row, but we voted for him just the same. Now what do we do? Who do we vote for? It’s frustrating.,” Ms. Garrahan added.