Kremlin Caves on Kiev, but No Break in Battle

The best news of the week from Ukraine will probably be that Ukrainian forces have definitively crushed Russian forces around the capital, Kiev. Without overstatement, the Kyiv Independent reported this morning that “the battle of Kyiv is over, with Ukraine as its victor.” As is now widely known but as that newspaper aptly reminds, “after sustaining heavy losses and accomplishing none of their key goals, Russian forces retreated, but not before inflicting devastating damage to Ukrainian towns and cities and committing numerous war crimes.” Russian forces have by now also also left the Chernihiv and Sumy regions. The battle for Donbas in the east rages on, and according to British defense intelligence, the humanitarian situation is worsening in Mariupol.Also not getting any better either is clarity regarding events unfolding in southern as well as eastern Ukraine. The Moscow Times, by way of the Agence France-Presse, reported remarks by a Russian defense ministry spokesman, Igor Konashenkov, to the effect that yesterday Russian forces shot down two Ukrainian helicopters trying to evacuate the leaders of a nationalist battalion defending Mariupol. The Mi-8 helicopters trying to reach the city from the sea in an attempt “to evacuate leaders of the nationalist Azov battalion” were shot down by portable anti-aircraft systems, Mr. Konashenkov said.Expect similar developments — often as dramatic as they are difficult to corroborate — to come fast and furious in the days and perhaps weeks ahead as Russian and Ukrainian forces, the latter estimated to number at least 50,000, square off. This makes pumping up the flow of weapons into Ukraine to boost the country’s ongoing counteroffensives a top priority for the West. Secretary of State Blinken tweeted this morning: “As Ukraine’s forces bravely continue to combat Russia’s renewed invasion, I have authorized $100 million to meet an urgent need for additional anti-armor systems for Ukraine’s forces.” It was not immediately clear if that amount is to be a fast-tracked allocation from the $13.6 billion in emergency aid for Ukraine that Congress approved last month or a supplement to it, nor is it obvious that it will be enough to rout the Russians from the rest of Ukraine as the battle lines there sharpen.In tne meantime, Greece turned down a request from America’s visiting undersecretary of State, Victoria Nuland, to provide additional weapons to Ukraine. Greece has already provided some weapons as well as humanitarian assistance, but as the newspaper Kathimerini reported, the Greek defense minister, Nikos Panagiotopoulos, said that the country cannot contribute in a way that might reduce Greece’s own defense capabilities. Ukraine’s ties with Greece and most, but not every, member of the European Union remain strong. The exception to that spirit of comity would be lonely Hungary, whose foreign minister, Péter Szijjártó, has summoned the Ukrainian ambassador following President Zelensky’s criticisms of the the Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán. Mr. Szijjártó posted on his official Facebook page that it is “time for Ukraine’s leaders to stop insulting Hungary.” More vexingly, he said Hungary would refuse to vote for energy sanctions against Russia and keep up its interdiction of weapons shipments across its 85-mile border with Ukraine.It is increasingly obvious that despite his recent military setbacks around Kiev, President Putin is still intent on carving up Ukraine to the best of his forces’ questionable ability. In remarks before the House Armed Services Committee yesterday, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, said, “Candidly, short of the commitment of U.S. military forces into Ukraine proper, I’m not sure he was deterrable. This has been a long-term objective of his that goes back years.” An exiled Russian oligarch, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, told CNN that Mr. Putin is “not at war not with Ukraine, he’s at war with the United States and NATO.” Some of our top military officer’s other statements in Washington yesterday dovetailed with that assessment. General Milley said America should look at the development of more bases in Eastern Europe to protect against Russian aggression, but said any effort to expand security there is a “work in progress” likely to be discussed a NATO summit in June. NATO has previously said it will station four new battle groups in Eastern Europe. Of sanctions, General Milley said they “have a very poor track record of deterring aggression.” Yet the Biden administration’s immediate response to the torture and killing of scores of Ukrainian civilians at the hands of Russian soldiers, and the international outcry it has prompted, was to announce more sanctions. These are said to include a ban on all new investment in Russia, a senior Biden administration official told the AP. In recent weeks, judging by reams of diligently worded corporate press releases posted on company websites and social media, most if not all American companies have already made divestment from the Russian Federation a priority.

Kremlin Caves on Kiev, but No Break in Battle

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