Those in France who have been watching the strikes roiling Britain with a certain muted glee will soon see any smugness evaporate, as France girds for its own crippling wave of strikes over President Macron’s legislative scrum for pension reform. 

His embattled administration this week unwrapped much-anticipated plans to raise the retirement age in France by two years, to 64, in order for individuals to qualify for generous, full pensions. By Thursday the biggest French unions were calling for strikes that could trigger violence across France and see the entire country shut down.

France has one of the lowest retirement ages among the industrialized nations and spends nearly 14 percent of its economic output on pensions, a greater share than most other countries. Yet the prospect of having to work for two more years against a backdrop of inflation and a soaring cost of living has unleashed a bristling opposition. 

French media were reporting that the biggest trade unions are now calling for a “powerful and long-lasting” mobilization against the planned reform. The CGT unions in the oil sector are calling for several days of strikes and have pledged to shut down the country’s oil refineries, raising the specter of more of the huge lines that formed outside gas stations last November during a short-lived movement for wage increases. The first strikes will begin on January 19 with a work stoppage of 24 hours, which will be followed by a 48-hour strike beginning on January 26, followed in turn by a 72-hour strike starting February 6. 

According to the national coordinator for the TotalEnergies union, Eric Sellini, the industrial strikes will cause “lower throughput” and a “halt of shipments.” The longer strike set for February 6 could be particularly problematic for the country because the unions are already calling it “renewable.” 

Compounding the coming storm for Mr. Macron is that transportation strikes have also been announced. They threaten to bring both the French national railway grid and the vast Paris metro network to a standstill. Furthermore, French bakery workers are set to go on strike January 23. There are more than 33,000 boulangeries, or bakeries, in France, many of which are struggling to pay their energy bills.

With patience thinning and the country heading into a complete and possibly breadless shutdown, the lackluster French prime minister, Elisabeth Borne, is treading a careful line. “There is a right to strike, there is a right to demonstrate,” she said, but “it is also important not to penalize the French.” As union leaders see it, though, Paris is trying to punish workers, and a veritable clash of economic imperatives and work culture issues is at play. 

Consider a statement from the head of the National Federation of Chemical Industries, a branch of the CGT union. “Oil workers are not pampered, but rather they suffer exposure to hazardous materials, night work, hardship, to end up [with] a shortened life compared to employees of the same socio-professional categories,” Emmanuel Lépine told the French newspaper Le Monde.

In other words, the battle lines are being drawn, and with characteristic Gallic stubbornness. The last time Mr. Macron tried “to drag France’s antiquated pension and retirement system from the 17th century into the 21st century with one long pull,” as CNN reported, “mobs coursed through the streets of Paris, flaming barricades went up on the Champs Elysées and Macron’s entire presidency nearly floundered in the face of the ‘gilets jaunes,’” or yellow vests. 

On the one hand, Mr. Macron has little choice but to take action at a time when the French public debt to GDP exceeds 113 percent. Yet he knows his legislative intervention is a deeply unpopular move, compounded by the unavoidable fact that his party does not hold a majority in parliament. That is something with which the French public is well aware, and the prospect of the president having to resort to executive sleight of hand to push his reform package through has already lit the fuse with oil and transport workers eyeing the coming strike dates. 

Yet Mr. Macron seems to be betting that protesters won’t turn out in the same numbers as they did four years ago, and for various reasons. That the streets of Paris and other French cities will see some level of confrontation between protestors and authorities is a sure bet, but the violence of the 2019 yellow vest protests may have left a mark. 

One of the leaders of that movement, Jérôme Rodrigues, has stated that “everyone is talking about a ‘comeback,’ but the yellow vests alone won’t reignite anything because there has been too much bloodshed. People are afraid to take to the streets.”

Since 2019 Macron’s administration has bolstered its domestic security apparatus. According to a report in the Spectator, dozens of “new and improved armored vehicles” are now at the security forces’ disposal and as many as 8,500 police are set to be recruited during Mr. Macron’s remaining term in office. A yellow-vest protest at Paris earlier this month fizzled this month in the presence of hundreds of police outfitted in the latest riot gear. 

Yet those images are set to repeat next week, and they will reinforce perceptions that Mr. Macron is arrogant, out of touch, and in service to wealthy interests at a time when small businesses are folding by the thousands. More than 41,000 reportedly shut down last year, with the number of closures forecast to jump by nearly a third in 2023. He is also facing an ongoing corruption investigation. 

Because it is his final term in office, Mr. Macron may feel he can safely assume the risk of reform that was stymied by the Covid pandemic. Woe, though, to any French leader who underestimates the wrath of a public notoriously resistant to change. 

Should he fail to mitigate the coming crisis, there is still a risk his government could collapse, which would be to the probable delight of his chief rivals. Both Jean-Luc Mélenchon on the left and Marine Le Pen of the National Rally party on the right would be only too glad to see “Macronism” turn into an anachronism.