Macron, Scholz Likely To Discover Some Strange Birds Indeed as They Travel to the East

“Oh, the places you’ll go,” Dr. Seuss wrote. “You’ll get mixed up, of course, as you already know. You’ll get mixed up with many strange birds as you go.” The adage today appears as befitting of some heads of state as it does birds of youth. Indeed, its most recent bearing, it would seem, is on President Macron of France and Chancellor Scholz of Germany, who, in November, plan to travel to Communist China to visit Xi Jinping. The two European leaders plan to make separate trips some one week apart.They will travel ahead of the G20 summit, which is to start November 15. This will be the first time in three years that either a French or a German leader will have journeyed to Beijing. Mr. Scholz’s predecessor, Angela Merkel, made her last trip to China in September 2019. Mr. Macron was last there in November 2019.How times have changed. Today, President Xi’s ostensible geopolitical ally, Vladimir Putin, is embroiled in a war in Ukraine and earlier this month signed off on a new foreign policy doctrine rooted in what he sees as a “battle for cultural supremacy” against the Western world and its values. The doctrine champions instead the idea of a “Russian world.” A reminder that the Ukraine war is not about Ukraine alone.Such musings are also not Mr. Putin’s alone, for he is in cahoots with Mr. Xi. Indeed, a core aim of last week’s summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization was to advance the new world order that both leaders seek. Its success — especially in Europe — largely turns on Central Asia.“Long as our journey is, we will surely reach our destination when we stay the course,” Mr. Xi said at Samarkand. As the Russian and Chinese presidents met, their respective navies embarked on joint military exercises in the Pacific. With such geopolitics as their backdrop, Messrs. Macron and Scholz will have their tasks cut out for them. All the more so as Xi Jinping will have in October secured a precedent-breaking third term following the 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress. The visiting Europeans could risk giving the impression of paying homage, as if to a newly crowned king. The timing of the trips is indeed not ideal, and their objectives not yet clear. Could discussions of Europe’s energy crisis be expected? Or, again, Russia’s war in Ukraine? What of Taiwan and Xinjiang? When Ms. Merkel would travel to Beijing she would often take with her planes full of German executives. Now, surely, would not be a time for deals — or could it be? In October, the European Council is expected to meet to discuss Europe’s China strategy. This could be an opportunity for the region’s leaders to forge some semblance of a consensus. This would be generally useful. It would also help to dispel any concerns that Monsieur Macron and Herr Scholz could act in their own national interests while in Beijing. Both gentlemen have a history of openness and accommodation toward Beijing. Since assuming office, Mr. Scholz has continued to reassure Mr. Xi of the persistence of the Merkelian wandel durch handel — change through trade — policy. He has spoken about lifting the suspension of the EU-China deal. In the first six months of his chancellorship, Germany’s dependence on China has increased markedly. The German government now finds itself attempting to craft a new China policy that could counter this over-reliance. “No more naivety,” the country’s economic minister, Robert Habeck, says. Yet there is so far little indication that Mr. Scholz is onboard — and with China, as with all of Germany’s great power relations, it is the chancellor who has the final say. So, too, in France. Mr. Macron’s caution that Europe should not “gang up on China with the U.S.” has ostensibly continued to inform his China policy. His calls for European “strategic autonomy” also carry great favor with Mr. Xi. For a Europe untethered would, indeed, be more malleable and riper for the picking that one under the aegis of, say, America. What Messrs. Macron and Scholz might then say or not say at Beijing in November will be finely parsed in European capitals, in Washington, and by Indo-Pacific allies Japan and Australia.It should then not be a time for minced words. It should be a time to take a strong stance on the issues of concern to Europe, to the West, and against the new global order that Mr. Xi envisages. Unless, of course, in their own calls for a “new era” Messrs. Macron and Scholz share some of this vision, too. Oh, the places you’ll go, indeed.

Macron, Scholz Likely To Discover Some Strange Birds Indeed as They Travel to the East

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