Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani has the wind at his back in his push for “free” government-funded child care, new polling finds. Some two-thirds of New Yorkers back the new state benefit, per a Siena University survey. Half of New Yorkers surveyed back free bus rides, too. Who, though, is going to pay for all these “free” services? To foot the bill, the Siena survey moots raising taxes on New Yorkers earning more than $1 million a year. Will it be enough?

Ay, there’s the rub. Marxists like Mr. Mamdani seem to think there’s a more or less endless supply of millionaires to fleece come tax season. As for even higher earners, incidentally, the mayor-elect reckons “I don’t think we should have billionaires,” who could, one imagines, be taxed down to a lower wealth stratum. Yet New York’s millionaires are already chipping in $34 billion via the state’s income tax, the Citizens Budget reports. 

Millionaires account for less than 1 percent of New York’s income tax filers, per Vital City, yet they supplied 40 percent of the revenue in 2022, the last year for which data is available. Expecting New York millionaires to cough up an extra 15 billion spondulix a year in taxes suggests the kind of misplaced optimism that led to the loss of the legendary golden goose. Or, as Vital City puts it: “Do the mayor-elect’s proposed tax increases risk adverse consequences?”

High-tax policies like those backed by Mr. Mamdani have already hurt the state. Between 2010 and 2022, the Budget Commission reports, “New York’s share of the nation’s millionaires plummeted 31 percent,” while Florida and Texas, and even California, saw their shares rise. If not for the exodus, per the commission, New York would have gleaned $13 billion more in income taxes in 2022. Almost enough to pay for “free” child care.

California’s higher share of millionaires, the commission concedes, suggests that high taxes aren’t the only factor behind the flight of the wealthiest. The commission points to “quality of life, social and cultural amenities, underlying economic trends, and the high cost of living,” none of which are likely to improve under a Mamdani mayoralty. Socialists should see some solace, too, in recent reports that Massachusetts’ millionaire tax is so far deemed a success.

Plus, also, too, some of the more alarmist predictions of millionaires pulling up stakes at New York City are not being borne out. “Sales of luxury homes in Manhattan jumped in November,” Bloomberg News reported, “countering fears that the election of Zohran Mamdani as mayor would drive out wealthy residents.” It’s early yet, though — Mr. Mamdani has yet even to decamp from his rent-stabilized apartment for Gracie Mansion.

Nor, either, is it clear to what degree Mr. Mamdani can advance his high-tax agenda, some of which will require the okay of the state legislature. The city council’s reported choice, over Mr. Mamdani’s objections, of Julie Menin, a relative moderate, as speaker suggests the possibility of a local legislative brake on the mayor-elect’s aspirations. A looming $2.2 billion budget deficit, slated to reach $13 billion by 2029, could also crimp his high-spending hopes.

Which brings us back to Mr. Mamdani’s “free” benefits. If New York is having trouble balancing its budget now, how can it expect to afford billions more in no-cost services? Fiscal realities could, one imagines, all too easily lead to higher levies for all taxpayers, not just millionaires. No wonder Argentina’s president, Javier Milei, bars the government from calling benefits “free.” Such a policy at Albany could certainly clarify the debate on taxes and spending.