Early polling of voting intentions in the presidential election suggests that Mayor Bloomberg would stand a better chance of taking the White House if Michael Huckabee and Senator Obama were chosen as competing candidates from the main parties, rather than Mayor Giuliani and Senator Clinton.

Mayor Bloomberg’s decision on whether to mount a run will be left until the results of the February 5 primaries, when voting takes place in 23 states, including the giant electoral college prizes of New York, California, and Illinois.

When added to the early primary states — Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina, and the enormous cache of votes attached to Florida — two clear front-runners should by then have emerged.

What the mayor will mull before he decides is whether the two party candidates chosen offer a chance for a “moderate centrist” to come through the middle and accumulate enough electoral votes to win, or to sow such confusion in the electoral process that Congress will have to decide on the presidency.

Mr. Bloomberg must glean from the polls which candidates offer him the best odds. As he continues to avoid committing himself to standing — yesterday, he declared to the press, “Look, I’m not running for president” — pollsters have little incentive to ask prospective voters about him.

However, polling taken less than a month ago by Rasmussen in two states in which Mr. Bloomberg and his policies are well-known — Connecticut and New Jersey — gives the best indication so far of how the mayor’s chances would improve if primary voters picked candidates outside of the mainstream.

Rasmussen found that when pitted against Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Giuliani, Mr. Bloomberg attracted just 12% to 15% of the vote in New York, Connecticut, and New Jersey. But when he was included in a battle between Messrs. Obama and Huckabee, his support grew to between 18% and 23% in each state.

In a putative three-way contest in New Jersey, Mrs. Clinton won 46% of the votes compared to Mr. Giuliani’s 38%, with Mr. Bloomberg attracting 12%. But when the two main candidates were Messrs. Obama and Huckabee, who registered 42% and 27% respectively, Mr. Bloomberg’s support rose to 18%.

A similar result was found in Connecticut, where a race between Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Giuliani gave them 45% and 36% respectively, with Mr. Bloomberg winning just 12%. However, when the contest was between Messrs. Obama (40%) and Huckabee (29%), Mr. Bloomberg took 18%. A complementary poll among New York state voters in November offered more alternatives. In a Clinton-Giuliani standoff, Mr. Bloomberg won 17% against Mrs. Clinton’s 42% and Mr. Giuliani’s 33%. But when the rival candidates were different, Mr. Bloomberg did significantly better.

When pitched in New York against Mrs. Clinton and Fred Thompson, the senator from New York attracted 45%, while Mr. Bloomberg drew level with the former senator from Tennessee at 22%. Similarly, when Mrs. Clinton, winning 46%, competed against Mr. Romney in New York, Mr. Bloomberg drew level with the former governor of Connecticut, taking 22%.

When Mrs. Clinton was run against Senator McCain in New York, she won 42% against his 27%, with Mr. Bloomberg attracting 20%.

The figures suggest that the mayor would stand a better chance of mounting a White House bid if the Republicans picked either Messrs. Romney or Thompson, and would do less well if he faced Messrs. Giuliani or McCain. Comparative polling with other Democratic candidates has not been published, though it is likely to offer similarly sharp differences.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, offered a cautious approach to the figures, suggesting in the summary of the polling, which took place on December 6 in New Jersey and Connecticut, and on November 14 in New York, that “the opportunity for Bloomberg may not grow that much even if Obama and Huckabee are the eventual nominees.” In a succession of national three-way polls since March with Mrs. Clinton facing Mr. Giuliani, Mr. Bloomberg seldom attracts more t h a n 11%. However, Mr. Bloomberg is little known so far outside of the Northeast, a fact that is sure to change if he were to declare himself an independent candidate and when he starts to spend his election war chest of $1 billion.

There is mixed evidence about whether a Bloomberg candidacy would steal more votes from the Republicans or the Democrats. As both a former Democrat and a former Republican, the mayor’s appeal is hard to gauge.

When he abandoned the Republican Party in June, Rasmussen found the mayor was “viewed favorably by 32% of Republicans, 38% of Democrats, and 34% of those not affiliated with either major party.” A Marist poll in November found the mayor “siphons support fairly evenly from both Clinton and Giuliani.”

However pollster John Zogby found in June that “contrary to conventional wisdom, my polling shows he would likely take more votes from the Democrat than the Republican.

Those who consider themselves part of that growing ‘moderate’ political class are 38% Democrats, 25% Republicans, and 38% independents.”