‘NATO Is Dead’ Might Be an Overstatement, but Markets Are Behaving as If It Were True

“NATO is dead,” Vertical Research Partners defense industry analyst Rob Stallard writes clients. It’s a harsh overstatement. But markets are acting as if it’s true. Over the last 10 days, American defense stocks have tanked, and European defense stocks have soared.For Europe’s big five, Britain’s BAE is up 16.5 percent since February 10, Italy’s Leonardo is up 19.6 percent, France’s Thales is up 20 percent, Germany’s Rheinmetall is up 30 percent, and Sweden’s Saab is up 37 percent.“We have one message for the defense chief: buy, buy, buy,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told reporters yesterday at a briefing with her Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen. “Buy what right now can help strengthen our defense, and thereby strengthen our ability to deter. If we can’t get the best equipment, then buy the second-best.” This year’s defense spending will be nearly double the level of 2022.Akin to the Covid-19 crisis of the early 2020s or the financial meltdown of 2008, Europe confronts a historic turning point this week with President Trump’s break with Ukraine and reconciliation with Russia. Now, Ukraine is pivoting to Europe, and Europe is racing to defend itself with its own resources.“Russia poses an existential threat to Europeans,” President Macron warned his nation through an interview published Tuesday in French regional newspapers. “Do not think that the unthinkable cannot happen, including the worst.”The French foreign minister, Jean-Noël Barrot, told broadcaster RTL: “Russia has decided to make enemies of us, and we must open our eyes, realize the scale of the threat, and protect ourselves.” He added: “If we do nothing, if we remain blind to the threat, the front line will move ever closer to our borders.”In a first step, the French president yesterday held a Zoom and live conference with the leaders of 17 European countries, plus Britain and Canada. Excluded were Hungary and Slovakia, two countries seen as pro-Russian. Following a similar in-person meeting in Paris on Tuesday with the leaders of Europe’s eight largest nations, discussions revolved around plans to increase spending on European defense and news reports that the Trump Administration may cut American troop levels in Europe. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson of Sweden said later: “We need to keep a cool head, and continue to support Ukraine.”European leaders are drawing up plans for a multi-billion euro military aid program for Ukraine. Details for the package, expected to be over $10 billion, are to be released next week, after Germany’s Bundestag elections this Sunday.On Tuesday, Secretary Rubio came out of talks with Russian envoys in Riyadh and spoke enthusiastically about the “incredible opportunities” offered by a detente with Russia. In turn, Russia’s lead financial participant in the talks, Kirill Dmitriev, chief executive of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, told Reuters that he “expects a number of American companies to return to the Russian market in the second quarter of 2025.” In contrast, in Brussels on Wednesday, the 27-member European Union, agreed on a new package of sanctions against Russia, zeroing in on ships carrying sanctioned Russian oil.It is more than inertia that propels Europe to stand with Ukraine. Europeans increasingly see Ukraine as the continent’s first line of defense against an aggressive Russian leader who seeks to reverse the end of the Cold War. With a battle-tested army of 900,000 men and women, Ukraine has more active-duty soldiers than Britain, France, Germany, and Italy combined. In three years of fighting, Ukraine has destroyed about half of the Russian army’s tanks, armored personnel carriers, and artillery pieces.For Europe’s big three — Britain, France, and Germany — the first order of business yesterday was to stand with President Zelensky in the face of a startling string of insults and threats from President Trump.“A Dictator without Elections, Zelenskyy better move fast or he is not going to have a Country left,” Mr. Trump wrote on social media. Elections scheduled for last spring were postponed due to martial law. Russia has not had free elections in decades. Mr. Putin’s last three major political opponents died violent deaths.Mr. Trump belittled the Ukrainian leader as “a modestly successful comedian” who started the war with Russia. In reality, it was Russia that attacked Ukraine three years ago, on February 24, 2022. Mr. Trump also said the Ukrainian leader languishes at 4 percent in approval ratings. According to a Kyiv International Institute of Sociology poll taken in early February, Mr. Zelensky’s “trust” rating is 57 percent, little changed from polls over the last six months. By contrast, a Gallup poll completed Sunday gives Mr. Trump an approval rating of 45 percent — 15 points lower than the historical average of all other Presidents since 1953 at this point in their first terms.Unfazed by these attacks, Prime Minister Starmer telephoned Mr. Zelensky yesterday. He expressed support for him as Ukraine’s democratically elected leader, and said it was “perfectly reasonable to suspend elections during wartime as the UK did during World War II.”Chancellor Scholz said it was “false and dangerous” for the American president to call Mr. Zelensky a dictator, the German newsweekly Der Spiegel reported. Mr. Macron also telephoned Mr. Zelensky and expressed solidarity with his desire for “solid security guarantees.”Seeking to salvage the trans-Atlantic alliance and build strong security guarantees for Ukraine, the French president and the British prime minister are to fly to Washington next week to meet with Mr. Trump. According to Bloomberg, an Anglo-French proposal would be to field 30,000 troops from European countries at key points around central and eastern Ukraine. America would continue to provide satellite intelligence. In a new initiative, American Air Force war jets would patrol Ukrainian air space, flying out of bases in Poland and Romania.Earlier this week, Mr. Trump voiced his approval for European countries to send troops to Ukraine. However, today Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov expressed opposition. He told reporters in Moscow: “This causes concern for us, because we’re talking about sending military contingents – about the possible, eventual sending of military contingents from NATO countries to Ukraine.” It is unclear if Mr. Trump’s pique will have cooled by the time the British and French leaders enter the White House. Much of his irritation apparently stems from Mr. Zelensky’s rejection of an arms for minerals deal.“We had a deal based on rare earth and things, but they broke that deal, they broke it two days ago,” Mr. Trump said yesterday. His National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, complained on Fox: “U.S. taxpayers deserve reimbursement…Instead, we hear escalation rhetoric and resistance — which President Trump won’t tolerate.”Ukraine’s president says part of the problem is numbers. Mr. Trump claims that America has given Ukraine $500 billion in aid. The Ukrainian leader claims it is $98 billion, with an equivalent amount coming from Europe.“You can’t call this 500 billion and ask us to return 500 billion in minerals or something else. This is not a serious conversation,” Mr. Zelensky said yesterday. “I defend Ukraine, I can’t sell our country.”As America’s new president threatens to reverse 80 years of foreign policy with a pro-Moscow tilt, he risks alienating conservative Republicans“Mr. President, Ukraine did not ‘start’ this war,” the former vice president, Mike Pence, posted yesterday on X. “Russia launched an unprovoked and brutal invasion claiming hundreds of thousands of lives. The road to peace must be built on the truth.”With public opinion polls showing American sympathy for Russia in the single digits, Senator Wicker, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, had harsh words yesterday for its leader, telling CNN: “Putin cannot be trusted, he is a war criminal. He should be in prison for life — or even executed.”

‘NATO Is Dead’ Might Be an Overstatement, but Markets Are Behaving as If It Were True

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