City Lags U.S. On Indicators Of Economy

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The New York Sun

The time when New York City could count on besting the nation’s economic numbers is almost a distant memory.


Despite showing positive trends in employment, revenue growth, payroll job numbers, and commercial vacancy rates, the city’s economy is lagging behind the nation’s, according to a report released yesterday by the city comptroller.


While the report, an assemblage of federal and local economic indicators pooled from a variety of sources, raises questions about New York’s employment numbers, city officials downplayed the unflattering comparisons between the city and the nation, saying the natural tendency is for New York to be trailing the rest of the country.


The office of the city comptroller, William Thompson Jr., has calculated that the gross city product expanded by 3.4% in the third quarter of 2005 as the American economy grew 4.3%. Payroll jobs increased 1.2%, compared with 1.6% nationally. Unemployment dipped to 5.6% from 5.7%, as unemployment in America fell to 5.0% from 5.1%.


Propelled by rising energy costs, inflation jumped to 4.1% in the third quarter from 3.3% in the previous quarter, while the national inflation rate was 3.8%, up from 2.2%. Energy prices in the city shot up 24%, while the nation experienced a 23% increase.


Core inflation, which includes all items besides food and energy, was at 2.8%, up from 2.6%, the report said. The New York metropolitan area posted the fifth-highest inflation rate in the third quarter among the nation’s largest metropolitan areas.


“The city generally doesn’t grow as rapidly as the rest of the country,” Deputy Comptroller Marcia Van Wagner said. “What we are experiencing is a little more typical.” She added, however, “If it’s a persistent trend, that’s a cause for concern.”


The nation overtook the city in growth after trailing New York in two consecutive quarters in 2005, according to the report. A chart supplied by Mr. Thompson’s office comparing New York’s gross city product with the nation’s since 1990 showed that the nation has outpaced the city in 37 out of 63 quarters. The city outperformed the nation from first quarter 1997 through second quarter 1998, the longest such stretch since 1990, according to the city’s data.


The gross city product is a figure devised by the city comptroller’s office. It uses a different methodology than is used to determine the gross domestic product. Some economists have questioned the reliability of the city figure, which is used by taking an estimated city share of a two-year-old gross state product figure and updating it using more recent economic variables, such as wages and employment, Ms. Van Wagner said.


Mr. Thompson’s report called the third quarter a “challenging” one for the nation’s economy, citing the effects of the two Gulf Coast hurricanes, the Federal Reserve increasing the fed funds rate by 50 basis points, China revaluing its currency, and a $10-a-barrel surge in the cost of oil. “So far, the City and nation have absorbed the shocks well,” the report said. “But how consumers will react to higher winter heating bills and energy surcharges remains to be seen.”


An economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Jason Bram, said the city’s “economic measures all look pretty strong” and said inflation was simply following the national trend. “What’s most improved this year is that the city’s key industry, which is finance, seems to have gained some steam,” he said.


The report noted that New York Stock Exchange member firms expect $8.3 billion in profits for the second half of 2005, citing Securities Industry Association numbers. Pre-tax profits jumped to $3.8 billion for the third quarter, a 73% increase over the same period in 2004.


More worrisome to observers of the city’s economy than the gross city product are employment trends. Between 1998 and 2000, when New York’s economy was sizzling, the city saw annual job increases of 100,000, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute think tank, Steve Malanga, said.


In 2004, New York gained 10,000 jobs, he said, predicting that it would gain between 35,000 and 40,000 jobs this year, a growth rate of a little more than 1%.The city lost 11,000 jobs in October, with some of the losses attributed to October’s record-breaking rainfall, which hampered the construction industry. New York is ranked ninth out of the 20 largest metro areas in terms of the percentage of job growth in third quarter 2005 versus third quarter 2004, the comptroller’s report said, citing Bureau of Labor Statistics data.


More problematic is that many of the jobs are in low-wage categories, Mr. Malanga said. Additional health care and social service jobs would account for about a third of the job growth, with many of those jobs supported by tax money. Retail industry employment increases could account for an additional 6,000 to 7,000 new jobs, he said.


“It isn’t just about the gross numbers,” Mr. Malanga said. “It’s about the quality of the jobs.”


While Wall Street profits are sharply up – helping to increase city revenue – and potential for high bonus salaries is strong, firms have been reluctant to bring mid-level employers back to the city after shipping them out when the economy contracted, he said.


The New York Sun

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