New York City’s anemic employment numbers, with only 956 private-sector jobs added so far this year, are shaping up as a key issue for the mayoral race. “Shocking” is how one analyst, the New School’s Lauren Melodia, describes the jobs data. Liberals blame President Trump for the crisis, but it’s more accurate to pin the job shortage on the city’s high taxes and stifling regulations, including minimum wage rules, which pose challenges for the next mayor.

New York’s creation of fewer than 1,000 jobs in the first half of the year contrasts with the 66,000 positions added during the same period last year, the Times says. The “nosedive” in jobs bodes ill for the city’s Independent Budget Office projection that some 32,000 positions will be added for 2025 as a whole, the Times reports. That estimate itself is far off from the city’s level of job creation before the Covid pandemic of about 100,000 jobs a year. 

Yet the Times pins the “glum” job numbers on “President Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs,” along with a dip in tourism, which the Gray Lady attributes to the “president’s repeated attacks on Canada.” Ms. Melodia ties the weak job data to “the political environment and impact on the economy.” If that’s the case, though, then why are other metropolitan areas in America — mostly in low-tax blue states — posting robust job growth?

Feature the 90,000 new jobs added at the Atlanta metropolitan area in the year since June 2024, according to the latest report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. During the same period, employment at the Phoenix area rose by 50,000, and at the Houston area it jumped by 46,000. Growth was seen at areas like Nashville, up by 17,000, and Kansas City, up by 14,000. Yet employment at the New York metropolitan area fell during this period by some 14,000.

To help understand why New York has its own policies, and not the Trump administration, to thank for its weak job numbers, feature the latest State Tax Competitiveness Index published by the Tax Foundation. The report gauges how the states compare to each other when it comes to attracting job-creating businesses to set up shop within their borders. Income taxes, corporate taxes, sales taxes, excise taxes, property taxes, and even wealth taxes are all examined.

How does New York fare on this index? The Empire State comes in dead last, 50 out of 50, in terms of how its high taxes are stifling growth. By contrast, the most competitive states are among those, like, say, South Dakota and Wyoming, with no corporate or individual income taxes. Feature, too, how fast-growing states like Florida and Texas lack for an income tax on their residents. These states offer models for New York to consider if it wants to improve.

The JPMorgan Chase chairman, Jaime Dimon, has urged New York to follow “the example set by low-regulation, low-tax Texas,” these columns reported last year. “They don’t want business,” is how Mr. Dimon describes the New York mentality, urging a look “at other states.” At the time, we urged Mayor Eric Adams to adopt a crash program of “cutting taxes and regulations to lure private enterprise.” Yet so far no progress has emerged on that head.

New York’s Empire Center, focused on the state’s economy and quality of life, offers a cautionary note on the job numbers. The center’s president, Zilvinas Silenas, tells us that if the employment picture is bleak now, “the situation might deteriorate even further if New York City implements higher minimum wage or similar measures.” If “uncertainty over tourism is preventing people from hiring, imagine what a $30 minimum wage would do,” he adds.

It’s hard to detect in New York’s crop of mayoral contenders a leader who could stake out the kind of free-market, low-tax vision needed to improve the job picture. The leftist candidates aim for more of the regulations and wage minimums that are stifling job growth. Mr. Adams speaks of cutting regulations under his “City of Yes” initiative, but he has shown little appetite to trim taxes. Yet economic disaster looms if New York fails to right the ship.