Even With Spitzer Hobbled, GOP Bench ‘Weak’

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The New York Sun

Almost half of New Yorkers say that in three years they would prefer to elect a different governor than now holds office, according to a poll that came out this week. While voters may be opening the door, state Republicans have yet to accept the invitation.

Governor Spitzer’s waning popularity among voters has breathed new life into the state Republican Party, but it has also focused attention on a dispiriting reality for the party.

Despite the growing perception that Mr. Spitzer is vulnerable in 2010 — his favorability rating has sunk to 41%, the Siena College poll said — the Republican field appears to be remarkably empty.

While the number of possible candidates is long, Republicans say they cannot point to a logical front-runner. Senior party members interviewed have even conceded that Mr. Spitzer probably has a better chance of being defeated by another Democrat, such as Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, than by one of their own.

“There’s not a full stable of potential candidates,” a well-known state Republican who did not wish to be identified said. “The bench is pretty weak.”

The first choice out of the mouths of many Republicans, Mayor Bloomberg, abandoned the party earlier in the year. Mr. Bloomberg, an independent who is said to be considering entering the presidential race, has said he “categorically will not run for governor.”

For Republicans, the prospect of Mr. Bloomberg challenging Mr. Spitzer is more a dream than a possibility. “He’s a fantasy candidate for all of us,” a Republican state senator, George Winner, said.

Aside from the mayor, the name most frequently mentioned by Republicans interviewed is John Flanagan, a Suffolk County state senator who was first elected to the Legislature in 1986 at 25. An easy-going, telegenic politician with a moderate record, Mr. Flanagan was encouraged by Governor Pataki to run for governor in 2006.

Other names tossed around include New York City’s police commissioner, Raymond Kelly, an independent whom some expect to enter the mayoral race in 2009, and Michael Balboni, who left the state Senate — much to the dismay of his Republican colleagues — to become Mr. Spitzer’s homeland security chief.

“Balboni, if he comes to his senses, would be a contender,” a Republican senator of Brooklyn, Martin Golden, said.

Part of the problem is that Republicans are shut out from statewide offices, denying them a historical pathway to the governor’s mansion. For the state party operation, the more pressing concern is warding off a Democratic takeover of the Senate next November. Senate Republicans, who may be considering their options in 2010, first have to clear what could be a challenging electoral hurdle a year from now.

John Faso, a former assemblyman who carried only 29% of the vote as the Republican nominee for governor last year, is considering a rematch against Mr. Spitzer. Mr. Faso narrowly lost a race for state comptroller in 2002.

Peter King, a Long Island congressman who is the ranking member of the homeland security committee, said he is also keeping his options open. “I haven’t ruled it out, but I haven’t really thought about it much either,” he said.

Mr. Winner, who has raised his profile spearheading Senate investigations into the Spitzer’s administration’s use of state police to discredit the Senate leader, Joseph Bruno, said he would “love to be governor,” but said he’s realistic about his chances.

“Do I think I could raise enough dollars to do that? That would be very difficult for me,” Mr. Winner, who represents a district in the southern tier of the state, said. “But I do have a moderate, pro-choice type of background. My overall philosophy would be attractive for a Republican candidate, but I’m hampered by geography.”


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